NEW YORK, Feb 25, 2026, 10:02 a.m. EST — Regular session
- Nvidia shares picked up roughly 1% at the open, extending gains from premarket trading as investors looked ahead to results coming after the close.
- Options are pointing to about a 5.5% swing after Nvidia reports, putting the chipmaker’s outlook squarely in focus on the tech tape.
- Guidance, performance around the Blackwell ramp, and margins are drawing traders’ attention, with persistent questions about AI spending hanging in the air.
Nvidia Corp kicked off Wednesday trading roughly 1% higher, with shares last seen at $194.49 in the premarket session—$1.64 above Tuesday’s close at $192.85, a gain of 0.85%. 1
With Nvidia set to report after the bell, traders are on edge, eyeing a possible move of about plus or minus 5.5% based on options prices. Focus is squarely on the outlook, any details on how quickly Blackwell chip production is scaling, and gross margin—essentially, what’s left from sales once direct costs are out. 2
Major U.S. indexes started out on the front foot, shaking off a choppy few days as traders considered uncertainty around AI stocks and tariffs, with Nvidia’s earnings report looming. 3
On the earnings call, expect guidance to dominate the conversation. “It’s going to be all about the guidance,” said Luke Rahbari, co-portfolio manager at the Rational Equity Armor Fund, speaking to Kiplinger. John Belton at Gabelli Funds pointed to gross margins as the real stress point, with input-cost volatility rattling supply chains. 4
Layering on more pressure, new competition is making waves. Advanced Micro Devices announced Tuesday it’s set to deliver as much as six gigawatts of AI chips to Meta Platforms, kicking off supply with its next-gen MI450 hardware. The agreement highlights just how rapidly major buyers are chasing options in the race to expand their data centers. 5
So far in 2026, tech stocks have shown a jagged performance—software names have taken the brunt of AI disruption worries, while chipmakers have fared relatively better, according to Reuters. “AI will continue to disrupt the world but I don’t think it’s the end of the world,” said Ken Polcari, chief market strategist at Slatestone Wealth, in comments to Reuters. 6
Estimates are still lofty. According to Business Insider, Bloomberg’s consensus forecast stands at $65.91 billion in quarterly revenue, with adjusted gross margin pegged near 75%. Analysts are set to key in on CEO Jensen Huang’s remarks about demand for high-end chips, as well as updates on the rollout of the Rubin platform. 7
Nvidia’s right in the thick of a surge in AI spending by cloud and internet giants, but investors are split over how fast that spending becomes real profit. FactSet’s numbers, cited by the Associated Press, are looking for revenue to land around $66.1 billion. 8
Nvidia plans to hold its “4th Quarter FY26 Financial Results” webcast at 2:00 p.m. PT on Wednesday, right after the U.S. markets shut, the company’s investor relations site shows. 9
Still, expectations are stretched. Any hint of caution—a soft outlook, shipment delays, or margin squeeze—tends to hit not just chip stocks but the wider megacaps fueling the AI surge. Nvidia’s GAAP gross margin landed at 73.4% in fiscal Q3, as pointed out in a Nasdaq.com piece. Now, with traders on edge, even a whiff of margin slippage as volumes or costs shift gets noticed. 10
Next up: the company’s results and outlook, dropping after the 4 p.m. ET close on Wednesday. The Q&A follows fast. Investors want to hear about demand strength, supply bottlenecks, and—critically—whether the heavy AI spending is losing steam.
