New York, March 2, 2026, 13:30 ET — Regular session
- Brent crude futures rose about 6% to around $77 a barrel; U.S. WTI climbed above $70.
- Traders focused on disrupted Gulf shipping and tighter insurance terms around the Strait of Hormuz.
- Markets are watching any change in tanker flows, OPEC+ supply response and U.S. inventory data this week.
Oil prices climbed sharply on Monday, with Brent crude futures up $4.25, or 5.8%, at $77.12 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate up $3.54, or 5.3%, at $70.56. 1
The move matters because the Strait of Hormuz — the narrow route between Iran and Oman that carries roughly a fifth of the world’s oil — has seen shipping grind toward a halt, while insurers tighten terms. “Underwriters” were “increasing rates” and in some cases “declining to offer terms,” said David Smith, head of marine at broker McGill and Partners. 2
Supply concerns deepened after a string of precautionary shutdowns across the region. Qatar halted liquefied natural gas output and QatarEnergy was preparing to declare force majeure — a legal clause that excuses deliveries when events are beyond a seller’s control — after drone attacks on the Ras Laffan complex, while Saudi Arabia’s Ras Tanura refinery was shut as a precaution, Reuters reported. “Gulf energy infrastructure” is “now squarely in Iran’s sights,” said Torbjorn Soltvedt, principal Middle East analyst at Verisk Maplecroft. 3
Traders had started pricing the supply risk even before markets reopened in full. Brent jumped about 10% to roughly $80 a barrel in over-the-counter (off-exchange) trade on Sunday, oil traders said, and “the key factor here is the closing of the Strait of Hormuz,” said Ajay Parmar, director of energy and refining at ICIS. 4
OPEC+ moved to add supply, but the decision did little to steady sentiment. The producer group agreed to raise output by 206,000 barrels per day for April, and Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy, said: “Prices will respond to developments in the Gulf and the status of shipping flows, not to a relatively small increase in output.” 5
Analysts are now treating the next few days as a test of how long the disruption lasts, and how much oil can actually move. Citi sees Brent trading between $80 and $90 over the coming week and Goldman Sachs estimated a real-time “risk premium” — the extra price traders pay for disruption risk — of about $18 a barrel, while JPMorgan said crude exports through the strait had slumped to roughly 4 million bpd from a typical 16 million. Bernstein raised its 2026 Brent assumption to $80 from $65 and flagged $120-$150 in an extreme scenario of prolonged conflict. 6
In Washington, officials have so far stayed away from talk of tapping emergency barrels. The Trump administration is not currently discussing a sale from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, a U.S. source said, and the SPR holds about 415.4 million barrels, according to Reuters. 7
The oil shock is spilling beyond energy desks into rates and currencies, reviving a familiar worry: higher fuel costs feeding inflation. Reuters reported economists estimate a sustained $10-a-barrel rise in crude could add up to 0.2 percentage point to annual U.S. inflation, complicating expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts. 8
But the trade has an obvious escape hatch. If tanker traffic normalises and Gulf facilities return faster than feared, the war premium can unwind quickly and leave crude vulnerable to sharp pullbacks.
For near-term direction, traders will watch U.S. inventory signals, starting with the American Petroleum Institute’s weekly crude stocks report on Tuesday and the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly petroleum status report at 10:30 a.m. ET on Wednesday. 9
Beyond the week, the next dated checkpoint for demand and supply assumptions is the EIA’s Short-Term Energy Outlook, due March 10. 10
