HOUSTON, February 12, 2026, 11:35 CST — Regular session
Oil prices slid more than $1 a barrel on Thursday after the International Energy Agency cut its 2026 demand growth forecast, dragging attention back to a potential surplus. Brent crude futures were down $1.26, or 1.8%, at $68.14 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell $1.24 to $63.39. “The market’s doubling down on the lowering demand forecast,” said Phil Flynn, senior analyst with Price Futures Group. (Reuters)
The drop landed after days in which traders leaned hard on geopolitics for direction. It also showed how quickly crude can lose its risk premium when fresh demand numbers cut against the story.
In its monthly report, the IEA said world oil demand will rise by 850,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2026, 80,000 bpd less than last month’s forecast. It projected global supply would exceed demand by 3.73 million bpd this year, and said geopolitical tensions, extreme weather in North America and Kazakhstan supply disruptions helped flip the market more bullish earlier in the year. Oil prices are still up about 14% so far in 2026; OPEC+ — OPEC and allies including Russia — has paused output hikes for the first quarter and eight members meet on March 1 to decide whether to restart increases in April. (Reuters)
U.S. commercial crude oil inventories rose by 8.5 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 6 to 428.8 million barrels, the Energy Information Administration said. Refineries operated at 89.4% of capacity and crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.0 million bpd. Gasoline inventories increased by 1.2 million barrels, while distillate fuel inventories fell by 2.7 million barrels.
On Wednesday, Brent settled 60 cents higher at $69.40 a barrel and WTI gained 67 cents to $64.63 as investors fretted about U.S.-Iran tensions ahead of more talks. “The market continues to be supported by the tension between the U.S. and Iran,” said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, while Mizuho’s Robert Yawger said domestic production “came back with a vengeance.” OPEC, in its monthly report, said demand for crude from the wider group would drop by 400,000 bpd in the second quarter versus the first. (Reuters)
Longer term, the EIA forecast Brent averaging $58 a barrel in 2026, down from an average $69 in 2025, as production of petroleum and other liquids keeps exceeding global demand and stockpiles rise. It also expects China to keep filling strategic reserves at about 1.0 million bpd, while output rises in countries such as Brazil, Guyana and Argentina. (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
But the downside bet is not clean. Any new disruption in places like Kazakhstan, or a sharp turn in the U.S.-Iran track, can tighten prompt supply quickly and push traders back toward a geopolitical risk premium.
For now, traders are also watching how hard U.S. refineries run through seasonal maintenance. A softer run rate can swell crude stocks even if demand holds up in products such as gasoline and diesel.
Next up is the EIA’s weekly petroleum status report due Feb. 19, which will tell the market whether the latest U.S. crude build was a one-off or the start of a run higher into late February. (U.S. Energy Information Administration)
