NEW YORK, Feb 16, 2026, 18:01 EST — Market closed.
- Rivian shares last closed at $17.73, up about 27% in the prior session.
- The rally followed the EV maker’s latest outlook for 2026 deliveries and spending as it readies the lower-priced R2.
- Investors’ next checkpoint: details on March 12 and early signals on the R2 launch cadence.
Rivian Automotive, Inc. shares will be in focus when U.S. trading resumes on Tuesday, after the stock jumped about 27% on Friday and U.S. markets shut on Monday for the Washington’s Birthday holiday. (New York Stock Exchange)
The move matters because it rewires near-term expectations for a company that has traded more on milestones than margins. Traders are now weighing whether Rivian can turn a burst of optimism into a steadier bid, or whether the stock gives back gains once the long weekend ends.
Rivian’s next week looks less about headlines and more about follow-through: production timing, pricing and how much cash the company has to burn to get the R2 into driveways.
Rivian said it generated $1.286 billion in fourth-quarter revenue and posted $120 million in consolidated gross profit, while guiding for 62,000 to 67,000 vehicles delivered in 2026. It forecast an adjusted EBITDA loss — earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization — of $1.8 billion to $2.1 billion, and capital expenditures (capex) of $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion. The company said first customer deliveries of the R2 remain expected in the second quarter and it plans to share more product and line-up details on March 12. (Nasdaq)
Analysts have framed the stock story around execution on that timetable. “For the stock itself, nothing matters more than a timely launch for the R2 SUV,” Piper Sandler analysts wrote, after Rivian outlined plans for the cheaper model, which it has said will start at about $45,000. (Reuters)
Rivian’s founder and CEO RJ Scaringe told Reuters the growth is expected to come from the R2, with volumes for the existing R1 models and delivery vans largely flat, and the company flagged a heavier spending year as it ramps the new platform. Reuters also reported Rivian ended December with $3.58 billion in cash and cash equivalents and is set to receive $2 billion this year from Volkswagen as part of a technology joint venture, while remaining open to raising additional capital. (Reuters)
On Wall Street, views remain split even after Friday’s surge. Deutsche Bank analyst Edison Yu upgraded the stock to Buy and raised his price target to $23, saying Rivian is showing “early signs” of an inflection, while UBS analyst Joseph Spak moved to Neutral with a $16 target and pointed to “cash burn” and execution risk around the R2 ramp. (Streetinsider)
The risk case is still straightforward. Rivian remains loss-making, its 2026 spending plan is large, and any slip in the R2 schedule could force the market to revisit assumptions on demand, costs and funding — especially in an EV market where price cuts and incentives can change the math quickly.
For Tuesday’s session, traders will watch whether the stock holds above the levels it reclaimed on Friday and whether volume stays elevated as the market digests the new guidance and the fresh round of analyst target changes.
Next up is March 12, when Rivian has said it will provide additional R2 details, followed by the more consequential test: the start of first customer deliveries in the second quarter.
