LONDON, July 9, 2026, 16:22 (BST)
- Shell last traded near 3,048 pence, off 1.06%. BP slipped 1.88% as delayed quotes hit the London market.
- The stock slipped after jumping earlier this week when Shell raised some parts of its Q2 operating outlook.
- Investors eye July 30 numbers for cash flow, LNG trading, and the chance buybacks get back up to $3.5 billion.
Shell Plc slipped in late London trade Thursday, giving up part of its earlier jump after the oil giant lifted some of its Q2 forecasts and signaled better gas trading. Shares changed hands at 3,048 pence, off 1.06%, with the FTSE 100 also down on the session, according to Hargreaves Lansdown pricing.
The change puts the focus on Shell’s July 30 earnings. The quarter was already known to be active, but now investors will watch to see how the volatility turns into cash. Cash flow is important for dividends, paying down debt, and buybacks—Shell’s share repurchases could lower the share count.
Shell’s update broke down the latest numbers. The company now sees integrated gas output at 610,000 to 650,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day and LNG liquefaction at 7.4 million to 7.8 million tonnes, both lifted from earlier estimates. Trading and optimisation in integrated gas is forecast to be well above first-quarter levels.
| Shell Q2 item | Q1 2026 / prior guide | Q2 2026 updated outlook |
|---|---|---|
| Integrated gas output | 909 kboe/d; previous Q2 range 580–640 kboe/d | 610–650 kboe/d |
| LNG volumes | 7.9 MT; earlier Q2 guide 6.8–7.4 MT | 7.4–7.8 MT |
| Upstream output | 1,843 kboe/d; earlier guide for Q2 was 1,620–1,820 kboe/d | 1,750–1,850 kboe/d |
| Refinery run rates | 99%; Q2 guide was 91%–99% | about 100% |
| Working capital | $11.2 billion outflow last quarter | $1 billion–$6 billion inflow |
That’s the bull case by the numbers: LNG volumes are up, trading income got a boost, refining margins look better, and there’s a reversal in working capital after a tough first quarter. Working capital here means cash stuck in inventories, receivables and payables. If that flips to an inflow, it can jump-start reported cash flow even before factoring in underlying profit.
Berenberg analysts said Shell could post “exceptional” cash flow in the second quarter, with oil and gas trading, commodity prices and refining margins helping the results. The analysts said the current environment might allow Shell to temporarily bump quarterly buybacks back up to $3.5 billion. Shell started a $3.0 billion buyback in May and plans to cancel the repurchased shares. The Wall Street Journal Shell
| Company / index | Latest quoted move | Read-through |
|---|---|---|
| Shell | -1.06% at about 3,048p | Shares held after Q2 rally |
| BP | -1.88% at about 482p | Fell with rest of UK oil group |
| FTSE 100 | slightly lower in delayed pricing | London market edged down |
| TotalEnergies | -0.62% to €68.92 | Stock slipped in step with sector |
BP was off 1.88% at about 482 pence in late London trading, putting it behind Shell. In Paris, TotalEnergies slipped 0.62% to €68.92, Trading Economics data showed. The selling hit peers too as oil and gas prices stayed volatile. HL
Oil stayed in focus. Brent crude slipped 0.1% to $77.91 a barrel at 1322 GMT. Both Brent and U.S. West Texas Intermediate earlier hit their strongest marks since June 22, as traders looked at fresh U.S.-Iran tensions and risk tied to the Strait of Hormuz, the main shipping lane for oil and LNG.
“Generally (it’s) a very nervous market,” Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank said. He said that any news making a peace deal less likely was supporting prices. Aneeka Gupta at WisdomTree expects Brent to stay between $75 and $85 over the next month, with a slight upward tilt. Reuters
Brokers disagree less about Shell’s quality than about how much of it is priced in. TipRanks shows Henry Tarr at Berenberg kept his buy rating with a 4,000p target on July 9. Lydia Rainforth at Barclays also has a buy call but a higher 4,500p target, dated July 8. Alastair Syme at Citi left his rating at hold and trimmed his target to 3,200p from 3,550p.
The risk is the quarter could overstate how Shell is really doing. Shell has already cautioned that its refining and chemicals margins have come in lower than the posted indicative margins due to market swings, and said the year’s price and margin sensitivities might not line up with what they’ve booked in the quarter while the Middle East stays volatile. A drop in LNG prices, weaker trading or more trouble at Hormuz could make investors look through short-term cash flow and raise doubts about whether buybacks keep up as planned.
Shell is still being seen as a cash-return play with some geopolitical edge built in. The crucial date is July 30, when Shell reports second-quarter results and investors will see if trading gains were big enough to shift the capital returns equation.
