ANN ARBOR, Michigan, July 9, 2026, 10:01 EDT
Domino’s Pizza shares edged lower Thursday after TD Cowen cut its price target on the stock to $295 from $350 and kept a Hold rating, the latest downshift before the pizza chain reports second-quarter results on July 20. The shares were recently trading around $301, little changed to slightly lower in morning U.S. trading.
The timing matters because investors are looking less at one quarter’s pizza orders than at whether Domino’s can defend traffic without giving away too much price. UBS expects U.S. same-store sales — sales from locations open for at least a year — to fall 1.5% in the second quarter, against Wall Street expectations for 0.3% growth, and sees earnings per share of $3.91 against consensus of $4.23.
The pressure comes from a crowded deal market. UBS analyst Dennis Geiger kept a Buy rating and $375 target, but wrote that the quarter should show “near-term pressure” from macro headwinds, pizza-category promotions and tougher year-earlier comparisons; he still sees “longer-term market share gains.” Streetinsider
Wall Street has kept cutting numbers. Benzinga’s analyst tracker showed TD Cowen’s July 9 cut, Citigroup’s July 7 reduction to $335 from $365 and UBS’s July 2 reduction to $375 from $425 among the three most recent ratings.
Domino’s first-quarter results had already shown the strain. The company reported global retail sales growth of 3.4%, excluding currency swings, while U.S. same-store sales rose 0.9% and international same-store sales fell 0.4%; diluted earnings per share fell to $4.13 from $4.33 a year earlier.
In April, Reuters reported Domino’s had shifted to a softer 2026 outlook for U.S. and international comparable sales as stretched consumers and tougher competition weighed on demand. The company was leaning on offers such as its $9.99 “Best Deal Ever,” “Mix and Match” and “Emergency Pizza,” while CEO Russell Weiner said national pizza players were matching or coming close to Domino’s value proposition. Reuters
The industry pressure is not Domino’s alone. Papa John’s and Pizza Hut, owned by Yum Brands, have faced declining sales, rising costs and increased competition while deal talks around both chains moved forward earlier this year, Reuters reported. That backdrop cuts both ways for Domino’s: weaker rivals could leave share up for grabs, but widespread discounting can reset what customers expect to pay for pizza.
Another swing factor is management. Domino’s said Joe Jordan, chief operating officer and president of Domino’s U.S., will become chief executive on Oct. 1, while Weiner moves to executive chairman-designate. Jordan said he would focus on “reaccelerating growth” and value. PR Newswire
TD Cowen analyst Andrew Charles described the handover as an “orderly change in ranks,” but said he was “surprised by the timing” while U.S. comparable sales appeared to be under pressure. Reuters
But the risk is that a weak second quarter changes the story from temporary promo pressure to an earnings reset. UBS expects management to discuss value promotions, DoorDash growth, app and loyalty improvements, marketing and new menu items; if those do not add orders without squeezing profit per order, analysts may cut 2026 targets again.
For now, the stock sits close to TD Cowen’s new target. That makes July 20 less a routine earnings date than a test of whether Domino’s can turn discounts into order growth, rather than just cheaper pizzas.
