Shell SHEL.L shares underperformed the FTSE on Tuesday, with the lower share price set to affect its share repurchase math ahead of the ARC vote. LONDON, June 30, 2026, 12:07 (BST)
- Shell traded up 0.36% at 2,910.5p on lagging London prices. The FTSE 100 was up 1.03%.
- The stock traded around 11% under Shell’s last buyback price before the pause, so restarting the repurchase at Tuesday’s level would make the math more favorable.
- Shell’s $3 billion buyback is on hold until July 14 as the company deals with securities-law requirements for its $16.4 billion ARC Resources deal.
- Brent crude was heading for its biggest quarterly drop since early 2020. Shell said that if traffic through Hormuz gets back to normal in three months, 2026 LNG trade may stay flat.
Shell Plc LON:SHEL edged higher in London Tuesday, but the move in the price was modest. The stock was last quoted up 0.36% at 2,910.5p, according to delayed Hargreaves Lansdown data. The FTSE 100 gained 1.03%. London trading runs from 0800 to 1630 BST on weekdays.
Shell’s last disclosed buyback before the break was June 11. The company picked up 1.986 million shares for cancellation across London markets at a weighted average near £32.82, spending around £65.2 million. On Tuesday Shell traded at 2,910.5p, about 11.3% under that buyback price. At this lower level, the same £65.2 million would buy back roughly 12.8% more stock, according to Reuters math using Shell data.
That’s important as Shell isn’t buying its own stock while the price is lower. The company suspended its $3 billion buyback that it announced May 7, pausing it from publishing the ARC circular until the ARC shareholder meeting. Reuters said the halt will last until July 14, and any leftover amount could roll into 2026 buybacks, if the board signs off.
| Shell tape and buyback math | Confirmed figure | Investor read-through |
|---|---|---|
| Shell last price delayed | 2,910.5p, up 0.36% | Shares gained, lagged the FTSE 100 |
| FTSE 100 last price delayed | Up 1.03% | Wider UK market rallied harder |
| Last buyback average price | About £32.82 | Shell paid more per share in recent buybacks |
| Drop versus Tuesday price | Down about 11.3% | Lower price lets Shell cancel more shares for the same outlay |
| Same money, Tuesday price | About 12.8% extra shares | More accretion if shares stay down |
| Spend reported on June 11 | About £65.2 million | Last daily buyback pace seen before stop |
The index gain didn’t come from oil. Reuters reported the FTSE 100 was up 0.5% at 0904 GMT, as banks and industrial metal miners moved higher. Lower crude prices weighed on Shell: Brent for August was at $73.27 a barrel at 0959 GMT, off about 20% for June and heading for its steepest quarterly drop since early 2020.
UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo told Reuters he wouldn’t say the market lost its risk premium, but noted ships that were stuck had started moving again as Gulf shipping disruption eased. Morgan Stanley cut its 2027 Brent forecast by $5 a barrel, putting it at $75 for the first half and $70 for the second, pointing to an OECD inventory build.
Shell’s gas business offered a second datapoint for investors. On Tuesday, the company said continued disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could hold global LNG trade flat this year, assuming flows resume within three months. Shell stuck to its view that LNG demand could jump about 65% by 2050—hitting roughly 700 million tons a year, led by Asia and growth in data centres. “This is a system-wide shock,” said Shell integrated gas president Cederic Cremers. Reuters
ARC Resources Ltd (TSE:ARX) brings Shell’s gas strategy into its share base. Shell said the buyout brings 370,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day to its output, boosting its production growth goal to 4% a year through 2030 from the previous 1%. The deal will see Shell issue about 228 million new shares, or around 4.1% of its ordinary share count as of May 29.
| ARC deal item | Figure |
|---|---|
| Enterprise value | $16.4 billion |
| Equity value | $13.6 billion |
| Cash component | $3.4 billion |
| Shell share component | $10.2 billion |
| New Shell shares | Roughly 228 million |
| New shares vs May 29 Shell share base | Approximately 4.1% |
| Production added | 370 kboe/d |
| Shell production growth target through 2030 | Now 4%, up from 1% |
Shell CEO Wael Sawan called the ARC deal a move that “establishes Canada as a heartland for Shell” in remarks made in May. Reuters said the ARC assets are close to Shell’s fields in Canada, which feed LNG Canada, where Shell owns a 40% stake. ARC’s production is roughly 60% gas, 40% liquids, according to the report. Shell
Shell’s buyback is under pressure now. The company lowered its quarterly repurchases to $3 billion from $3.5 billion in May to save cash after supply problems pushed up its debt, Reuters said. Chief Financial Officer Sinead Gorman called Shell’s payout range “sacrosanct” back in February at a press briefing. Reuters
The next steps are straightforward. ARC shareholders vote July 14. Shell’s current buyback broker contract is up July 24. If Shell restarts the program around Tuesday’s level, the cheaper shares mean stronger cancellation per pound. But if the ARC vote gets delayed or the board pushes the unsold volume, the shares are left following crude and the FTSE more than any Shell buyback action.
