New York, Feb 22, 2026, 13:55 EST — Market closed
- Shopify shares ended Friday higher and will reopen Monday with policy and macro headlines in play
- A company buyback plan and upcoming partner/API rule changes remain on the radar
- The week’s tone may hinge on big tech earnings and interest-rate expectations
Shopify Inc. (SHOP) shares closed up 1.9% at $126.20 on Friday, ahead of the weekend shutdown in U.S. equities, after swinging through a wide range in the session. (Investing)
The broader backdrop turned risk-on late in the week after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs imposed under emergency powers, a ruling that lifted stocks even as traders digested fresh uncertainty about what comes next on trade. (Reuters)
For Shopify, that kind of macro noise matters because the stock has traded like a high-beta software name this year — quick to move when investors rotate in or out of growth and anything tied to AI.
A regulatory filing dated Feb. 11 showed Shopify’s board authorized repurchases of up to $2.0 billion of its Class A subordinate voting shares, capped at 5% of the company’s outstanding Class A shares. The program took effect on Feb. 17 and has no fixed expiration, with purchases allowed via open-market buying, block trades or other methods under U.S. and Canadian rules. (SEC)
Shopify’s earnings release for the fourth quarter and full year laid out the numbers investors keep coming back to. The company reported 2025 revenue of $11.56 billion and gross merchandise value (GMV) of $378.44 billion — the dollar value of goods sold through its platform — while free cash flow, defined as operating cash flow minus capital spending, totaled $2.01 billion. Shopify forecast first-quarter revenue growth in the low-thirties percentage range and said it expects free cash flow margin in the low-to-mid teens. CFO Jeff Hoffmeister said the buyback would be launched “from a position of financial and operating strength.” (SEC)
Shopify has also tried to frame the debate around AI as an opportunity, not a threat. The company has pointed to rising usage of AI-driven features and said orders from AI search queries have jumped sharply since early 2025, while it also highlighted a partnership that allows purchases through OpenAI’s ChatGPT. “The AI era has now reached commerce,” President Harley Finkelstein said, and D.A. Davidson analyst Gil Luria warned that “indiscriminate selling of software stocks” can still overwhelm company-specific positives. (Reuters)
Another near-term watch item sits away from the income statement. Shopify said updates to its Partner Program Agreement and API License and Terms of Use will take effect on Feb. 27, including expanded “agentic commerce” definitions — shopping flows driven by automated software agents — plus tighter rules around merchant and customer data. The company said merchant and customer data, including derived or aggregated data, cannot be used to develop or train AI or machine-learning systems without explicit written consent, alongside new billing transparency and payment-app wind-down requirements. (Shopify Help Center)
On the product side, Shopify flagged on its developer forum that it plans to roll out “pre-launch pages” in the coming weeks, pitched as a static “coming soon” page that can act as an interactive placeholder while merchants build out a store. (Shopify Developer Community Forums)
Shopify’s move on Friday came as other e-commerce names also caught a bid after the tariff ruling, with investors pointing to reduced near-term trade shock risk. Etsy jumped about 6%, eBay gained roughly 3.7% and Wayfair added about 2% in the same session, according to Investors.com. (Investors)
Next week’s macro calendar could still swamp single-stock narratives. Investors will turn to Nvidia’s quarterly report on Wednesday as the next test for an AI-sensitive market, with other tech and software results also on deck in a tape that has punished parts of the software sector on disruption fears. (Reuters)
Rates remain the other lever. The Federal Reserve released minutes from its Jan. 27–28 meeting on Feb. 18, and traders will be parsing incoming data and Fed speak for how fast — or how slow — policy easing might arrive. (Federal Reserve)
But there are obvious ways this setup breaks the other direction. If tariff uncertainty flares again, or if investors return to broad selling in software on AI disruption concerns, Shopify can trade with the group regardless of its own execution. The Feb. 27 partner and API changes also carry reputational and ecosystem risk if developers push back or if enforcement spooks parts of the app economy.
Markets reopen on Monday, Feb. 23. For Shopify watchers, the next hard date is Feb. 27, when the partner and API terms updates take effect, while the week’s risk appetite will likely be set by Nvidia’s midweek results and whatever follows on trade policy.
