New York, Feb 13, 2026, 13:01 EST — Regular session
- Spot silver up 3.2% after an 11% slide in the prior session
- U.S. CPI came in softer than expected, lifting June Fed cut odds in futures markets
- Silver-linked stocks rise as traders brace for next inflation prints and a long weekend
Silver climbed on Friday, snapping back from a steep drop a day earlier after a cooler U.S. inflation reading revived expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year. Spot silver was up 3.2% at $77.55 an ounce by 11:04 a.m. ET, and independent metals trader Tai Wong called it a “relief rally” after the CPI eased nerves. (Reuters)
The swing matters because silver is being priced off the same two levers that have driven the whole week: where U.S. rates settle, and how hard the dollar stays bid. Silver does not pay interest, so it often struggles when yields rise, and it can lurch when traders reset Fed expectations.
It is also not just a “safe haven” metal. A big slice of demand is industrial — electronics, solar, manufacturing — so the market can react to growth fears as much as it does to inflation.
Fed funds futures pushed up the odds of a rate cut at the June meeting after the CPI report, and they now imply about 64 basis points of easing this year — where 100 basis points equals one percentage point. Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer at Northlight Asset Management, said that if CPI stays in check, the debate “reverts back to the labor market.” (Reuters)
Treasury yields slipped after the data, with the 10-year yield last down 2.9 basis points at 4.075%, while the dollar index was little changed around 96.932, a Reuters compilation showed. Phil Orlando, chief market strategist at Federated Hermes, said the inflation report was “better than expected,” backing his view that the Fed can cut rates as the year unfolds. (Reuters)
Thursday was the other side of the trade. Silver fell 8.9% to $76.54 an ounce, with traders pointing to strong U.S. labor data and technical selling that accelerated once key levels broke. “Those stops have been triggered,” City Index and FOREX.com analyst Fawad Razaqzada said, describing a cascading effect as stop-loss orders — automatic sell orders — were hit. (Reuters)
Silver-linked stocks moved with the metal on Friday. The iShares Silver Trust rose about 3.8% to $70.28, while Pan American Silver gained roughly 6.2%, First Majestic Silver rose about 5.9% and Hecla Mining added around 8.3%; the Global X Silver Miners ETF was up about 4.9%.
There is a risk case sitting right on the tape: this week’s price action has been driven as much by positioning and forced selling as by fundamentals. Another upside surprise in inflation, or a fresh run of strong jobs data, could drag rate-cut odds back down and leave silver exposed to another round of liquidation.
Traders will also be watching liquidity. U.S. stock and bond markets are closed on Monday for Presidents Day, with trading resuming on Tuesday, which can thin volumes and exaggerate moves. (MarketWatch)
The next big scheduled read for inflation traders is the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index on Feb. 20 — the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge because it tracks what consumers actually buy and adjusts for changing spending patterns. (Bureau of Economic Analysis)
Then comes the Producer Price Index (PPI) for January on Feb. 27, another piece of the pipeline that can feed into consumer inflation later on. (Bureau of Labor Statistics)
Beyond the data, the calendar is already narrowing toward the Fed’s March 17-18 policy meeting, where markets will be looking for any shift in tone after this week’s whipsaw.
