Tokyo, May 11, 2026, 21:07 (JST)
- Subaru cut its operating profit forecast to 40 billion yen from 130 billion yen.
- The company cited weaker sales, U.S. weather disruption, Middle East-related shipping delays and a battery-EV asset write-down.
- Shares closed down 1.63% in Tokyo, touching a year-to-date low.
Subaru Corp. cut its profit outlook for the fiscal year ended March 31, saying an electric-vehicle asset write-down and shipping disruption tied to Middle East tensions would leave operating profit at about one-tenth of the previous year’s level.
The warning matters now because Subaru is due to report final earnings on May 15, and Monday’s revision was its second downgrade to the same fiscal-year forecast. Reuters reported that net profit is now expected at 90 billion yen, down 73.4% from a year earlier and below the prior forecast of 125 billion yen.
Subaru is especially exposed to the hit because North America accounts for about 70% of its sales revenue, the company says in its risk disclosures. A U.S. cold snap, weaker sales and delayed overseas shipping vessels therefore landed in the part of the business that matters most.
The company lowered its operating profit forecast to 40 billion yen from 130 billion yen. Revenue was trimmed to 4.78 trillion yen from 4.80 trillion yen, while profit before tax was cut to 107 billion yen from 180 billion yen, the filing showed.
Subaru said it reassessed the recoverable value of battery electric vehicle development assets after reviewing the medium- and long-term demand outlook for electrified vehicles in the United States, where auto environmental rules have been eased. An impairment is an accounting write-down taken when an asset is no longer expected to earn back its book value.
The revision also reflected a drop in sales volumes from the U.S. cold wave and a slowdown in vessel operations for overseas shipments as Middle East tensions worsened, Subaru said. Jiji Press, carried by Yahoo Finance, said shipments to the United States had been delayed.
Kyodo News said Subaru had cut operating profit to 40 billion yen from 130 billion yen, a 90.1% fall from the previous year. The company kept its dividend forecast unchanged.
Subaru shares fell 38.5 yen, or 1.63%, to 2,319.5 yen at the Tokyo close, after touching 2,247.5 yen, their lowest level so far this year. The stock has fallen for most of the past two weeks.
The pressure is not isolated. Toyota Motor warned on May 8 that the Iran war would cost it about 670 billion yen this financial year through higher material costs, delivery delays and lower sales volumes; Toyota accounting group officer Takanori Azuma said the impact was showing up in “fuel costs, transportation expenses” and other assembly costs. Honda Motor, meanwhile, was set to post a full-year operating loss tied to EV business losses, Reuters reported, citing Nikkei. Reuters
The risk is that Subaru’s new estimate still rests on conditions that can move quickly: shipping routes, U.S. demand, environmental rules and the value of EV-related assets. The company said the forecast was based on information available at the time of release and that actual results could differ.
