London, June 30, 2026, 19:02 (BST)
- Centrica plc (LON:CNA), the owner of British Gas, ended down 1.47% even as the FTSE 100 managed a 0.12% gain.
- Ofgem’s July price cap is up 13% using the old typical consumption measure, with gas making up around 83% of the £221 cash rise on a like-for-like basis.
- Cornwall Insight’s new October forecast sits just £13 under the July cap using the same old-use measure, even after oil and gas prices dropped.
- ScottishPower, part of Iberdrola SA BME:IBE, is pushing to move roughly £1.6 billion in unpaid household energy bills into a long-term financing setup.
UK households are now facing higher bills, but the squeeze is showing up more in how utilities calculate the cap and handle debt than just higher wholesale prices. From Wednesday, Ofgem’s old typical use measure puts the average direct-debit dual-fuel bill up £221 to £1,862. Most of that increase—£183—comes from gas. Electricity is up about £39, and standing charges are nearly unchanged.
For investors, the split means that drops in spot oil and gas prices won’t translate right away into lower bills. Cornwall Insight’s price-cap model, using figures as of June 29 and updated Tuesday, set the October-December cap at £1,849.15 using current average consumption, a fall of just £12.85 from £1,862 in July-September. Based on Ofgem’s new lower-use metric, the forecast for October is £1,654.07, compared with £1,663 for July.
Ofgem chief Tim Jarvis said the July move “reflects continued volatility in global energy markets” and advised households to think about fixed tariffs or switching payment plans. The regulator said wholesale prices climbed 28% in the past three months. Gas bills will go up by 24%, while electricity rises about 5%. Ofgem
| Direct-debit item | Apr-June | July-Sept | Change | Annual cash effect on old typical use |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Typical dual-fuel cap | £1,641 | £1,862 | +13.5% | +£221 |
| Gas unit rate | 5.74p/kWh | 7.33p/kWh | +27.7% | about +£183 |
| Electricity unit rate | 24.67p/kWh | 26.11p/kWh | +5.8% | about +£39 |
| Gas + power standing charges | 86.30p/day | 86.23p/day | mostly unchanged | about -£0.26 |
From July, the headline price cap gets less clear. Ofgem is lowering its “typical” household use yardstick to 2,500 kWh for electricity and 9,500 kWh for gas, down from 2,700 kWh and 11,500 kWh. So, the July cap will show as £1,663 on this new yardstick, but on the old use level it would have been £1,862. Ofgem
| Cap measure | July-Sept confirmed | Oct-Dec forecast | Change vs July |
|---|---|---|---|
| Current TDCV basis | £1,862 | £1,849.15 | -£12.85 |
| New TDCV basis from July | £1,663 | £1,654.07 | -£8.93 |
Some households could be at risk of overpaying before July even starts. The Guardian reported about 5.3 million homes with standard tariffs and no smart meters might get hit with higher charges for June use if their suppliers estimate readings after the price cap goes up. Ben Gallizzi, energy expert at Uswitch, said people should get readings in before or on July 1, and added that “your bills don’t have to” go up just because the cap is higher. The Guardian
Bad debt is the main concern for investors right now. Ofgem said household energy debt and arrears over 91 days old climbed 5% to £4.79 billion in Q1, up from £4.55 billion at the end of last year, and up 15% compared to the same period a year ago.
ScottishPower retail boss Andrew Ward is pushing for about £1.6 billion—about a third of the total—to be ringfenced and sold on to banks, the Financial Times reported. “We need to stop going round in circles,” Ward said, calling the debt issue “too big.” ScottishPower said its plan would take the yearly household cost of that chunk of bad debt below £10, versus as much as £100 if sector debt reaches £7 billion. Financial Times
Listed suppliers are left asking who pays for the arrears, and when. Centrica ended down 1.47% at £1.71 in London, Iberdrola edged up 0.09% to €21.84 in Madrid. The price cap lets suppliers recover some allowed costs, but Ofgem sets the timing and amount of those debt claims.
National Energy Action called the £4.79 billion in debt “deeply worrying” last week. The fuel poverty charity’s policy analyst, James Mabey, said the people they support have to make “impossible choices about essentials.” National Energy Action (NEA)
Ofgem’s £500 million debt-relief plan is still on hold, Reuters reported in May, as new laws for data-sharing are needed before it can launch. Ned Hammond, deputy director for customer policy at Energy UK, said at the time, “this crisis will only grow further” if regulators don’t step in. Reuters
