NEW YORK, Feb 22, 2026, 14:39 EST — Market’s final bell has sounded.
- Caterpillar slipped 0.1% to finish Friday at $759.74.
- The U.S. Supreme Court handed down a decision against President Donald Trump’s tariffs, but new duties have since emerged—trade risk isn’t going away.
- This week, investors are watching tariff mechanics, inflation and growth numbers, plus a major catalyst: Trump’s Feb. 24 speech.
Caterpillar (CAT.N) slipped 0.1%, wrapping up Friday at $759.74. U.S. equity trading takes a break on Sunday and resumes Monday.
The stock enters the week as Washington’s tariff gears start turning once more. After the Supreme Court struck down a broad chunk of Trump-era tariffs, Trump quickly fired back with a sweeping new tariff—lifting it to 15%, hitting the legal ceiling, according to Reuters. “The uncertainty … gives him enormous additional leverage beyond the actual tariffs,” said Wendy Cutler, a former U.S. trade official now at the Asia Society Policy Institute. Reuters
Caterpillar finds itself right in the thick of it: tangled up in global supply chains, exposed to swings in equipment orders, and sensitive to shifting interest rates that shape both construction and mining demand. Friday saw the S&P 500 close higher by 0.69% as investors worked through the latest tariff decision, weaker growth numbers, and hotter inflation. Economists at the Penn-Wharton Budget Model flagged a potential risk: more than $175 billion in tariff collections could end up subject to refund claims.
Growth momentum lost steam. S&P Global’s flash purchasing managers’ index (PMI), which tracks business conditions, indicated that U.S. activity expanded in February at its weakest rate in 10 months. Factory orders tapered off, and hiring barely moved.
Inflation proved stubborn yet again. December’s personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index—favored by the Federal Reserve—came in above expectations, and now economists are penciling in a possible 0.4% monthly jump in core PCE for January, which would bring the annual rate up to 3.1%. “That said, this tends to be a very volatile category,” said Pooja Sriram, economist at Barclays. Reuters
The tariff decision didn’t settle things for markets—it just pushed the story forward. “It will increase this legendary uncertainty that markets, of course, always fear,” said Chris Beauchamp, chief market analyst at IG Group, according to Reuters’ market reaction report on Friday. Reuters
Caterpillar’s shares have turned into a kind of macro barometer—tracking moves in rates, growth, and trade. If those signals start to clash, trading activity dries up in a hurry.
Deere, Terex, and Komatsu? All feeling the same weather front. Their shares usually track the same cocktail of construction budgets, swings in mining tied to commodities, and whatever policy churn surrounds trade or infrastructure.
The risk isn’t hard to spot: broader tariffs or protracted legal battles over refunds could jam up business planning, leaving industrial order books vulnerable. Should U.S. activity decelerate more sharply, manufacturers would feel the pinch—especially with higher-for-longer rates continuing to squeeze financing for their customers.
The week packs a full schedule, Caterpillar aside. Traders are watching President Trump’s State of the Union on Tuesday (Feb. 24), then Nvidia drops earnings Wednesday (Feb. 25). Both could tip sentiment on risk after tariffs juiced indexes.
Thursday brings the U.S. durable goods report (Feb. 26), offering another look at big-ticket industrial orders. These numbers put a spotlight on new orders for major manufactured products—sometimes enough to jolt machinery stocks, especially when trading is thin.
With Caterpillar, forget about fresh products for now. The focus is squarely on clarity around tariff rules, exemptions, and those refund procedures once Feb. 24 passes. Then, eyes turn to Feb. 26, when durable-goods data could signal if there’s any spark left—or if things are sputtering out.
