Sydney, March 13, 2026, 10:28 AEDT
Lynas Rare Earths finished Thursday at A$21.17, tacking on more gains as traders continued to react to the Australian miner’s overhauled supply agreement with Japan. On Wednesday, the stock surged 16.2% after investors got their first look at the updated deal.
This matters: under the revised deal, Lynas gets a US$110-per-kg floor price on 5,000 tonnes per year of neodymium-praseodymium, or NdPr—a rare-earth oxide that goes into permanent magnets for EVs, wind turbines, and defense systems. Notably, that kind of price visibility is rare for any producer outside China.
Japan Australia Rare Earths, known as JARE and supported by Japan’s state agency JOGMEC alongside trader Sojitz, is locked in for a 5,000-tonne minimum each year through 2038. Lynas added that 75% of its heavy rare-earth oxide output will go to Japanese industry, while JARE itself has pledged to purchase an amount equal to half of all heavy rare-earth oxides Lynas turns out.
Chief Executive Amanda Lacaze said the deal should help ensure a “reliable supply” for Japanese customers. She also pointed to “fair market pricing” as a way to cut price swings for Lynas and encourage more investment. The company noted that additional sales beyond the minimum volume will need to come with “no opportunity loss” for Lynas.
The agreement comes while Japan and the U.S. work to establish rare-earth supply lines away from China, a country that continues to produce about 90% of all rare-earth magnets. Its framework is similar to the floor-price guarantees extended earlier to U.S. rival MP Materials.
Jon Mills at Morningstar pointed out that the Lynas acquisition signals buyers are putting a premium on rare earths sourced outside China. Mills also flagged Iluka Resources as a potential beneficiary, with Western demand shifting toward alternative supply.
Jefferies’ Mitch Ryan bumped Lynas up to Buy, setting a target of A$24. In his note, Ryan pointed out the new JARE deal preserves space for “higher-return Western offtakes” beyond the Japanese quota. TipRanks
The updated terms leave some sales out. Anything over 5,000 tonnes annually, Lynas said, comes down to mutual agreement. And if the achieved NdPr price crosses US$150/kg, JARE picks up 30% of the extra, but only up to a US$10 million annual ceiling.
Valuation remains a sticking point. Morningstar bumped its fair value estimate for Lynas to A$10 from A$7 in the wake of the deal. Still, Mills described the stock as “significantly overvalued,” saying the current price bakes in a long-term NdPr price well above his updated US$120/kg midcycle view. Morningstar
Lynas, the biggest rare-earth producer outside China, said it’s updating its contract after producing its first separated heavy rare-earth oxide in 2025. The deal still caps total NdPr supply at as much as 7,200 tonnes a year through 2038. Shares are moving on the news.
