London, March 13, 2026, 14:00 GMT
Rio Tinto stock dipped in London, down about 0.7% near 6,800 pence by 10:50 GMT on Friday. Glencore circling for renewed merger talks added another layer of uncertainty, while Rio’s Kennecott copper mine halted operations after a worker fatality.
Right now, Rio shares are being pulled by two forces: anticipation over a possible deal and jitters about operational risks. Glencore’s side argues that stronger coal prices give them more leverage, but under the UK Takeover Code—which triggers a six-month standstill after talks break down—Rio won’t be able to restart official discussions until August.
Coal has rallied 26% since Jan. 7, taking Glencore’s stock up by the same margin. Rio’s shares, on the other hand, are up just 9%. Glencore now claims it should account for roughly 35% of a merged company—an increase from the earlier 31.5%—based on comments from three investors after meetings with executives in Australia this week. Both Rio and Glencore wouldn’t comment on those talks.
Rio made it clear it wouldn’t go any further. When negotiations broke down last month, Chief Executive Simon Trott said, “Ultimately we formed the view that we couldn’t stand up a value case, and that’s where it stands.” Merging the companies would have put them on top as the world’s largest miner, overtaking BHP. Reuters
Kennecott is facing fresh scrutiny. Rio Tinto halted both above- and below-ground mining at its Utah operation following a contractor fatality on Thursday. “The safety of our people comes before everything else,” Trott said. Reuters notes the mine ranks among the world’s leading copper sources. Rio Tinto
The timing stings for Rio, which has been pushing to diversify away from iron ore. Just this week, it joined Prysmian to test low-carbon aluminium cables aimed at data centres. And in Brazil, the antitrust regulator signed off on Rio and Chinalco’s deal to snap up a controlling stake in aluminium maker CBA, giving the go-ahead with no strings attached.
Investor skepticism around a Glencore deal was clear early on—coal, along with ESG concerns, drove much of the hesitation. RBC’s Kaan Peker flagged in January that reintroducing coal would be “unacceptable” for a big chunk of Rio’s European base. John Ayoub at Wilson Asset Management saw an Australian nod only if coal got spun off. Tim Hillier over at Allan Gray, meanwhile, cautioned Rio risked paying too much. Reuters
Still, a swift rebound for the stock seems unlikely. For any Glencore tie-up to come back to life, the company would have to clear hurdles from shareholders, regulators, and government bodies. Back in January, five Australian funds had already flagged governance issues in a letter to Rio’s board, citing Glencore’s record of past corruption investigations. On top of that, Rio hasn’t set out any timeline for bringing Kennecott back online.
Investors aren’t biting on fresh merger rumors just yet—they’re holding out for something concrete. On Friday, share moves pointed to mine headlines and commodity numbers taking the front seat, with speculation on deals trailing behind.
