LONDON, March 20, 2026, 14:57 GMT
Lloyds Banking Group slipped 1.0% to 91.84 pence in London on Friday afternoon, the shares sliding for a second session as investors absorbed a grimmer UK rate scenario following the Bank of England’s latest decision. 1
This shift is significant, given Lloyds holds the top spot as Britain’s biggest mortgage lender—mortgages account for around 66% of its loan book. Traders are now pricing in about a 60% probability of a rate hike in April, with as many as three quarter-point increases possible before the year wraps up. That’s a stark reversal from the rate-cut bets that prevailed before the latest energy shock. 2
The Bank of England left rates unchanged at 3.75% on Thursday, warning that inflation might push up to 3.5% in the coming two quarters. “Whatever happens, our job is to make sure inflation gets back to its 2% target,” Governor Andrew Bailey said. 3
Banks and brokers wasted no time. J.P. Morgan now sees quarter-point hikes coming in April and July. Goldman Sachs and BNP Paribas are warning about the real possibility of a near-term move, too. “Energy futures were ‘on the borderline’ of justifying a hike,” said Rob Wood, chief UK economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics. 4
The whole sector took a beating Thursday. London’s FTSE 100 dropped 2.4%, while banks had it even worse: the FTSE 350 banks index sank 4.3%, posting the steepest loss among groups. HSBC slipped 3.1%. By Friday, the broader index looked set for a third week in the red. 5
Lloyds kicked off the week riding a wave of company-specific gains. Back in January, the bank surprised the market with a 12% jump in 2025 pretax profit, landing at 6.7 billion pounds. Management also raised its key 2026 profitability goal to above 16%, and rolled out a 1.75 billion pound share buyback—essentially a plan to purchase its own shares. Artificial intelligence, Lloyds said, is expected to deliver an extra 100 million pounds to profit in 2026. CEO Charlie Nunn credited “continued business momentum” for the improved outlook. Around the same time, Reuters noted that peers HSBC, Barclays, and NatWest were also seen ready to bump up their targets. 2
An additional cloud lingers. Lawmakers pressed Lloyds this week about the March 12 app glitch that exposed some customers’ transactions to others, demanding details on compensation. “An alarming breach of data confidentiality,” Treasury Committee chair Meg Hillier said. Lloyds responded that customers didn’t need to take any action, adding there was no compromise of account security. 6
But this isn’t a one-way trade. Grant Slade, economist at Morningstar, called worries about a BoE hike “overdone,” noting that central banks typically look past energy shocks. If oil prices ease, that could cool rate expectations and give Lloyds shares some breathing room. On the other hand, if high oil sticks around, the mortgage-focused bank could be staring at tougher conditions. 7
Shares have slipped under Thursday’s 92.78 pence close, putting the spotlight on whether Lloyds’ buyback and raised 2026 targets are enough in a harsher rate environment. Investors get the next strategy update in July. 1
