SYDNEY, March 30, 2026, 03:14 UTC+11
Macquarie Group Ltd strategists warned oil could hit $200 a barrel if the war involving Iran runs into June and the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway that carries about a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments, stays shut. 1
The call matters because the energy shock is already showing up in policy and markets. Brent was up 4.2% at $112.57 on Sunday, while India relaxed kerosene rules and Egypt slowed fuel-heavy state projects as governments moved to cushion households and curb fuel use. 2
For Macquarie, the note puts the focus back on a business management said in February was set for stronger short-term commodities income. The Sydney-headquartered group said in its Feb. 10 third-quarter update that profit improved across all major units and that income in its Commodities and Global Markets division was expected to rise in the near term. 3
Analysts including Vikas Dwivedi assigned 40% odds to the $200 case in a March 27 note, according to Bloomberg. Their base case, with 60% odds, sees the fighting ending by the close of March. 4
Macquarie’s view sits near the top of a wider rethink among brokerages. Barclays said a prolonged Hormuz closure could wipe out 13 million to 14 million barrels per day of supply and reprice Brent to $100 if disruption lasts through April, rising to $110 if it runs to the end of May. 5
The damage would not stop at the pump. “As long as transit through the Strait of Hormuz is affected, all Asian countries will feel the pinch,” DBS Bank analyst Suvro Sarkar said. “Rising transport costs affect consumer goods but also capital goods,” NORD/LB analyst Thomas Wybierek said, flagging chemicals and agriculture as especially exposed. 6
Still, there is a clear risk to Macquarie’s worst case. Two India-bound LPG tankers cleared the strait on March 29, and Pakistan hosted regional talks the same day on proposals to reopen the waterway, signs that even patchy progress on shipping or diplomacy could blunt the sharpest spike. 7
Macquarie is a diversified financial group spanning asset management, banking and financial services, commodities and global markets, and Macquarie Capital. In its latest quarterly update, Chief Executive Shemara Wikramanayake said trading conditions were satisfactory, while the group kept a cautious stance on the impact of geopolitical events. 8
