IAG stock hovers close to analyst marks after easyJet offer and oil slide shake up airlines

IAG trims voting power with buyback as fuel costs return

July 7, 2026

LONDON, July 7, 2026, 16:02 (BST)

  • International Consolidated Airlines Group SA (LON:IAG; BME:IAG) was last at 478.70p at 1558 BST, off 1.2%. Shares are about 3% under the 52-week peak.
  • IAG reported holding 190.98 million treasury shares as of July 6, or 4.14% of its issued capital, after purchasing 8.44 million shares last week.
  • The buyback is a bigger deal with the median analyst target just 3.5% above Tuesday’s late price.

IAG (LON:IAG; BME:IAG) slid in late London trading Tuesday, but the bigger move for investors came a day earlier when International Consolidated Airlines Group disclosed it had pulled about 191 million shares into treasury. That lowers the number of shares with votes while the stock trades near a 52-week high. IAG was at 478.70p at 1558 BST, down 1.2%. Volume was 4.47 million, well below the 17.20 million average.

The change in share count isn’t just window dressing. IAG reported having 4.4207 billion voting shares as of July 6, a drop of 44.3 million since May 1. Total issued capital was unchanged at 4.6117 billion shares. Using the current voting share base, a 1p move in the stock equals around £44.2 million of equity.

IAG capital baseMay 1July 6Change
Treasury shares146.66 mln190.98 mln+44.32 mln
Voting shares4.4650 bln4.4207 bln-44.32 mln
Treasury shares as % of issued capital3.18%4.14%+0.96 pct pt

IAG picked up 8.44 million ordinary shares from June 29 to July 3, splitting the buys between London and Madrid—5.06 million in London and 3.38 million in Madrid. Prices in London ran £4.65 to £4.81, while Madrid purchases were done between €5.43 and €5.61. IAG said these shares will stay in treasury for now and will be cancelled later.

VenueShares bought, June 29-July 3Price range
London5.06 mln£4.65-£4.81
Madrid3.38 mln€5.43-€5.61
Total8.44 mln

IAG’s new buyback is part of a second €500 million plan started in May. Qatar Airways will buy shares on a pro-rata basis to maintain its 25.1434% voting rights. IAG capped the programme at 300 million shares, or around 6.5% of issued capital as of May 15.

Buybacks are now rubbing up against a smaller valuation gap for investors. LSEG numbers in Investors Chronicle show 13 analysts with a 12-month median target of 495.52p, ranging from 384.46p to 615.13p. The median target is just 3.5% above Tuesday’s late price.

Fuel remains a big variable. IAG said in May that with the May 5 fuel curve and its hedges, it expects 2026 fuel costs around €9.0 billion. The company also lowered its free-cash-flow outlook to under €3 billion, down from February’s guidance. But IAG is sticking to its pledge to return the last €1 billion of excess cash by end-February 2027. CEO Luis Gallego said demand is still solid, though profit will come in “lower than originally anticipated.” IAIR Group

The pressure is still there. Brent crude climbed 1.1% to $72.75 a barrel on Tuesday after attacks on ships near the Strait of Hormuz, according to Reuters. IATA’s fuel monitor said last week’s global average jet fuel price rose 2.1% to $119.13 a barrel.

IAG posted first-quarter results that gave bulls some cover. Revenue gained 1.9% to €7.18 billion, operating profit up 77.3% at €351 million. Passenger revenue per available seat kilometre rose 3.5%. Non-fuel cost per available seat kilometre slipped 0.9%. Second quarter numbers land July 31.

IAG on Tuesday said it invested in Verve Motion, a robotics start-up from Harvard. The company makes wearable exosuits. IAG plans to try an exosuit for shoulder support with baggage handlers in aviation. It didn’t disclose terms of the investment. “The aim is to test and shape the technology in a live operating environment,” said IAG’s group innovation director Nacho Tovar. IAIR Group

The robotics pilot is much smaller than fuel, but it shows where management could cut costs. In Q1, employee expenses hit €1.62 billion. Handling, catering and other running costs came to €972 million. Verve Motion co-founder Ignacio Galiana said baggage handlers do “some of the most physically demanding work.” IAIR Group

Sector deal risk moved back into focus. easyJet (LON:EZJ) gained Monday after it reached a provisional deal on a £5.5 billion buyout by Castlelake. But Reuters said shares still traded below the £6.90 proposal. Ownership and regulatory worries weighed, with airline analyst John Strickland saying, “EU ownership and control elements are complex.” Reuters

Marcin Frąckiewicz

Marcin Frąckiewicz is the CEO of TS2 Space and a longtime technology entrepreneur focused on telecommunications, satellite communications and digital innovation. A graduate of the Warsaw School of Economics (SGH), he writes about space technology, artificial intelligence and publicly traded technology companies. His analysis covers major market trends, emerging technologies and the businesses shaping the future of the global economy.

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