LONDON, July 9, 2026, 15:01 BST
BP shares fell in London on Thursday afternoon after a string of UK retail-investor columns flagged RBC Capital’s 700p target and floated the idea that a £9,999 stake could be worth more by July 2027. The pieces linked to a bullish RBC note and made the case for a rebound after BP’s slide, with the focus back on whether the company can actually cut debt as oil prices steady and bring more consistent cash flow.
RBC’s Biraj Borkhataria stuck with a Buy call on BP Thursday, steady on the 700 pence target, MarketScreener said, citing dpa-AFX Analyser. That’s still far above BP’s trading level Thursday. The target isn’t BP’s own guidance.
BP traded at 483.70p to sell and 483.80p to buy on AJ Bell, off 1.57%. The previous close was 491.30p, putting its market cap around £74.75 billion. Shares had jumped 3.53% Wednesday, finishing at £4.91, while the FTSE 100 dropped 1.66%.
Here’s why it’s in focus now: BP wants the market to believe this new turnaround goes deeper than just another PowerPoint.
BP CEO Meg O’Neill said the company plans to streamline its portfolio, trim expenses, and rein in capital spending as it shifts focus back to oil and gas. “We need to make fewer, better choices and hold ourselves to account,” O’Neill said. RBC analysts noted BP should work on reducing its debt before it can free up cash for new investment. Reuters
The 700p target is just the bull case, not the base scenario for the market. Investing.com puts BP’s average 12-month target at 599.41p, with the high end just over 702p and the low around 425p. At the quoted 482.8p, investing £9,999 in BP would rise to around £12,414 if it hits the average target, and about £14,497 at 700p—before counting dividends.
RBC says the macro conditions could speed up BP’s balance sheet repairs. Last month, Biraj Borkhataria and Adnan Dhanani at RBC Capital Markets told Dow Jones Market Talk they see BP potentially beating rivals as a favorable setup should help the company cut debt. They expect BP to hit its $14 billion to $18 billion net debt target by the end of 2026, which is a year ahead of BP’s own plan to reach that figure by end-2027.
Oil is still the swing driver. Brent crude edged lower to $77.91 a barrel at 1322 GMT Thursday, after touching the highest mark since June 22 the previous day. Markets are watching the U.S.-Iran standoff and threats to the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for about a fifth of the world’s oil and LNG before the war. “A very nervous market,” Saxo Bank’s Ole Hansen said. Aneeka Gupta at WisdomTree sees Brent in a $75-$85 band this month. Reuters
BP posted first-quarter underlying replacement cost profit of $3.2 billion, more than double what it saw a year ago. The adjusted profit beat came as oil trading benefited after the Iran war hit supply. Net debt climbed to $25.3 billion. BP also confirmed it paused buybacks in February, saying it wants to cut debt and put cash into higher-return oil and gas projects.
BP is moving ahead with portfolio cuts. The company said this week it will sell its 37.2% stake in Canada’s Bay du Nord offshore oil project to Equinor. That leaves the Norwegian group as sole owner. BP has been focusing investment on what it sees as higher-return assets.
Competition is moving. Shell gave energy stocks a boost this week after it lifted guidance for second-quarter gas output and said gas trading was strong. BP, which is Shell’s top rival in London, will update the market next at 7 a.m. BST on July 14.
The risk is not going away. If oil prices drop as Hormuz traffic returns to normal, or if BP can’t cut debt fast enough, or if refining margins shrink, the 700p scenario for BP could disappear fast. Numbers from LSEG shown by Investors Chronicle put analyst targets anywhere from 429.88p up to 699.49p, showing BP shares are still trading off a mix of shifting geopolitics, debt, and execution risk.
BP’s narrative looks simpler right now than it did last year. The company is selling assets, trimming debt, putting capital to work where it counts, and getting some help from stronger oil prices. But shares still need more than management targets to move.
