Tokyo, May 8, 2026, 22:08 (JST)
- U.S. Air Force budget plans show F-47 research spending rising above $5 billion in fiscal 2027 and nearing $5.3 billion in fiscal 2028.
- Japan’s Ministry of Defense says the F-2 fighter is due to retire around 2035, making the GCAP timetable a live operational issue, not just an industrial one.
- GCAP has moved into its first joint contract, but past Japanese concern over delay keeps U.S.-built options, including F-35s and the still-developing F-47, in the debate.
Japan’s next fighter choice is under fresh scrutiny as Boeing’s F-47 gathers funding momentum in the United States, while Tokyo’s joint fighter programme with Britain and Italy works against a 2035 deadline to replace the Mitsubishi F-2.
The question matters now because Japan does not have much slack. Its defence ministry says the F-2 is scheduled to retire around 2035 and that relying fully on foreign countries for air superiority could weaken operational initiative. GCAP, the Global Combat Air Programme, is meant to solve that by giving Japan, Britain and Italy a jointly developed sixth-generation fighter — a new class of combat jet built around stealth, long range, advanced sensors and teaming with uncrewed aircraft.
The F-47, by contrast, is already receiving a large U.S. budget push. Air & Space Forces Magazine reported that the Air Force asked for more than $5 billion in research, development, test and evaluation money for fiscal 2027, rising from nearly $3.5 billion in fiscal 2026, with projected spending of nearly $5.3 billion in fiscal 2028. Heather Penney of the Mitchell Institute called it “a surge for development.” Air Space Forces Magazine
GCAP is not stalled. The GCAP Agency awarded Edgewing, the venture backed by BAE Systems, Leonardo and Japan Aircraft Industrial Enhancement Co, a first joint international contract worth 686 million pounds for design and engineering work. Masami Oka, the agency’s chief executive, called it “an important moment for GCAP,” while Edgewing CEO Marco Zoff said the partners were carrying “this momentum forward.” Leonardo
But the money question has not gone away. The Financial Times reported last month that Japan had become concerned about delays in British funding commitments, tied to a wider UK defence budget gap, and that an interim GCAP contract was being used to keep work moving while longer-term plans were settled.
Reuters reported last year that Japan had growing doubts the GCAP fighter would meet its 2035 rollout target, citing two sources with knowledge of Japanese air-defence discussions. The possible stopgaps were more Lockheed Martin F-35s or upgrades to older F-2s. Japan’s acquisition agency said then that the 2035 target was unchanged and that it was not aware of plans for additional F-35 orders.
The F-47 entered that discussion through politics as well as procurement. Reuters reported that Japanese media said U.S. President Donald Trump had discussed Boeing’s planned F-47 with Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba and encouraged Japan to consider U.S. aircraft. Separately, Japan’s trade negotiator Ryosei Akazawa said defence purchases could be considered in trade talks because they would contribute to the U.S. trade surplus.
Still, an F-47 buy would not be a simple swap. The U.S. Air Force says Boeing’s contract covers engineering and manufacturing development and will produce a small number of test aircraft for evaluation. The aircraft remains highly classified, and Washington has not announced an export model for Japan.
For Boeing, the F-47 is a major win after it beat Lockheed Martin for the Next Generation Air Dominance contract, a programme meant to replace the F-22 and operate with combat drones. Steve Parker, Boeing’s defence chief, said the company had made “the most significant investment” in the history of its defence business to prepare for the work. Reuters
For GCAP, the rival pressure is broader than Boeing. Italy’s parliament in February approved 8.77 billion euros for early phases of the programme, while Reuters said expected early-phase costs had risen to 18.6 billion euros from about 6 billion euros at 2021 prices. Europe’s separate FCAS project, led by France, Germany and Spain, has also faced industrial friction between Dassault Aviation and Airbus, adding to the sense that sixth-generation fighter programmes are becoming tests of political stamina as much as engineering.
The risk for Japan is that every option carries a cost. Waiting for GCAP preserves domestic industry and freedom to modify the aircraft, a core Japanese aim. Moving toward U.S. platforms could reduce schedule risk, but may bring export controls, upgrade limits and dependence on Washington. The F-47 also has to prove its own timetable; Penney said the funding pattern suggests flight testing around 2029, but the programme has not yet produced an operational jet.
For now, Japan remains publicly tied to GCAP. But the U.S. budget surge behind Boeing’s F-47 has changed the comparison: Tokyo’s own programme must now show it can hit 2035, not merely promise it.
