London, March 3, 2026, 08:15 GMT — Regular session
- BP shares ticked up in early London hours, following Monday’s sharp oil-driven surge.
- Brent pushed higher, with the market zeroing in on supply risks around the Strait of Hormuz as conflict worries linger.
- Investors are sizing up limited crude gains, but questions around buybacks and the timing of the next results loom.
Shares of BP PLC (BP.L) climbed roughly 1.1% to 493.1 pence early Tuesday, building on a 2.1% gain from the previous session. 1
Oil is back in the spotlight, driving the latest bid. Brent crude futures jumped over the $80 mark, climbing 4.1% to $80.89 as of 0745 GMT. An expanding U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran, plus fresh threats to Gulf shipping, have supply risks front and center. “Upside risks remain … the longer the conflict drags on,” IG analyst Tony Sycamore said in a note. 2
Energy stands out, one of the few areas holding up as investors pull back risks elsewhere. On Monday, Europe’s STOXX 600 slipped 1.7%, but energy bucked the trend, hitting a record and closing as the only sector in positive territory. Shell, BP, and TotalEnergies all climbed between 2% and 3%, according to Reuters. Paul Christopher, strategist at Wells Fargo Investment Institute, noted that in previous flareups, “sentiment rebounded quickly” once it was clear oil supplies wouldn’t be disrupted. 3
Supply policy isn’t driving prices just yet, but it’s in play. OPEC+—that’s the main producer group plus Russia and other partners—signed off on a 206,000 barrel per day output hike starting in April. Analysts pointed out, though, that most spare capacity is clustered, and shipping still depends on Gulf routes. “Prices will respond to developments in the Gulf and the status of shipping flows, not to a relatively small increase in output,” said Jorge Leon, Rystad Energy’s head of geopolitical analysis. 4
Higher crude prices usually boost BP’s upstream earnings and trading performance, and that pushes up the cash flow investors track for dividends and paying down debt. Still, as soon as the news cycle shifts, the market tends to strip out that “geopolitical premium” just as quickly.
BP published its latest share count in a regulatory filing: as of Feb. 28, the oil giant reported 15,700,469,813 ordinary shares outstanding, not counting treasury shares. Another 785,843,181 ordinary shares sat in treasury—these carry no voting power or dividends. All told, total voting rights amounted to 15,705,552,313, according to the document. 5
Questions around individual companies persist. Back in February, BP hit pause on its $750 million quarterly share buyback, Reuters noted, after recording roughly $4 billion in charges from renewables and biogas assets. The oil giant is redirecting that cash—debt reduction now takes priority—and eyeing oil and gas projects with higher expected returns. 6
This setup keeps BP’s shares tightly tethered to crude’s direction. Should oil prices keep climbing, BP gets some breathing room on its cash returns. If prices slip quickly, expect the buyback discussion to resurface immediately.
The downside’s easy to spot: Should Gulf shipping return to normal and tensions cool off, crude might surrender its latest run-up, pulling the rug from under energy stocks. On the flip side, a more prolonged disruption does buoy prices for now, though that scenario brings its own trouble—recession threats and weaker demand can ambush oil shares down the line.
Some investors are focusing on dividends right now. BP’s fourth-quarter payout lands at 8.32 cents, scheduled for distribution on March 27, Hargreaves Lansdown data show. 7
Traders are set to watch daily moves in Gulf shipping and insurance signals through the week. BP’s first-quarter results, listed for April 28 on MarketScreener’s corporate calendar, mark the next key company event. 8
