London, July 6, 2026, 15:04 BST
- British American Tobacco was down 0.4% at 4,602p near 15:00 BST, below the price it paid for last week’s buyback.
- BAT bought 477,743 shares in the week to July 3; a calculation from its filing gives a 4,647p average price.
- The buyback’s near-term support is modest: last week’s purchases equalled about 0.022% of shares outstanding.
- Forecasts still rest on second-half profit delivery, savings from job cuts and faster growth in New Categories.
British American Tobacco p.l.c. LON:BATS traded below the average price it paid for its own shares last week, a small gap that gives investors a cleaner read on how much support the buyback is giving the stock after a cost-cutting plan hit about 9,000 roles.
The shares were at 4,602p at 15:00 BST, down 0.41%, after opening at 4,645p and falling as low as 4,592p. The FTSE 100 (INDEXFTSE:UKX) was down about 0.31%. London Stock Exchange regular trading runs from 08:00 to 16:30 local time.
BAT’s July 6 filing shows it bought shares from June 29 to July 3 across London Stock Exchange, Cboe Europe’s CHIX book and BATE book. The shares bought under the programme will be cancelled. A calculation from the reported volume and price rows gives 477,743 shares bought for about £22.2 million, at a weighted average price of 4,647p.
That average is about 1.0% above Monday’s 15:00 quote. The gap is small, but it matters for a stock whose pitch still leans on cash return while cigarette volumes fall and new nicotine products do more work.
| Buyback measure | Latest figure | Investor read-through |
|---|---|---|
| Shares bought, June 29-July 3 | 477,743 | About 0.022% of 2.17 billion shares outstanding |
| Cash paid | £22.2 million | About 1.7% of the planned £1.3 billion 2026 buyback |
| Weighted average buyback price | 4,647p | About 1.0% above Monday’s 15:00 quote |
| Full £1.3 billion buyback at 4,602p | About 28.3 million shares | About 1.3% of quoted shares outstanding |
The buyback is not large enough by itself to set the price. At Monday’s level, the full 2026 programme would retire about 1.3% of shares outstanding, using the quoted share count from Google Finance. BAT’s investment case still needs earnings growth, cash conversion and leverage control to land together.
BAT said in June it still expects 2026 revenue growth at the lower end of its 3%-5% medium-term range, adjusted profit from operations growth at the lower end of 4%-6%, and adjusted diluted EPS growth of 5%-8%. It also lifted expected New Category revenue growth to mid-teens from low double digits, while its forecast for global cigarette industry volume worsened to a fall of about 2.5% from about 2%.
Chief Executive Tadeu Marroco said “full-year delivery remains firmly on track” and said New Category revenue growth was accelerating. BAT also guided for operating cash conversion of more than 95%, capital expenditure of about £750 million and leverage within 2.0-2.5 times adjusted net debt to adjusted EBITDA by year-end. BAT
| 2026 item | BAT guide or external forecast | Market read |
|---|---|---|
| Global cigarette industry volume | Down about 2.5% | Worse than prior forecast of about 2% |
| Revenue growth | Lower end of 3%-5% | ValueInvesting consensus shows £26.58 billion, up 3.8% |
| New Category revenue | Mid-teens growth | Raised from low double-digit growth |
| Adjusted profit from operations | Lower end of 4%-6% | Second-half weighted |
| Adjusted diluted EPS | 5%-8% growth | ValueInvesting consensus shows £3.70, up 3.39% |
| Average 12-month price target | 5,276.89p, 19 analysts | Saxo/FactSet shows 5,100p and an Overweight rating |
External forecasts still point higher. ValueInvesting’s analyst aggregation shows a 12-month average target of 5,276.89p, a median of 5,304p and a high of 6,037.50p. Saxo data from FactSet shows an average target of 5,100p, with seven Buy ratings, one Overweight, three Holds and one Sell.
The risk is that savings have to do more work. Reuters reported last week that BAT would cut about 5,500 jobs and move about 3,500 roles to third parties, with Accenture plc NYSE:ACN among the firms used. The U.S. is outside the plan. BAT expects the programme to add £500 million of annualised savings by 2027 and £600 million by 2028.
Chris Beckett, an analyst at BAT investor Quilter Cheviot, said the share reaction pointed to “concerns that the business may need to take more drastic action to meet its medium-term targets,” Reuters reported. Reuters
Derren Nathan, head of equity research at Hargreaves Lansdown, said after the June trading update that “performance will need to pick up in the second half just to hit this year’s modest guidance.” He said cash flows support the dividend and buyback, but said payouts could be at risk if leverage does not improve. HL
