New York, Feb 12, 2026, 12:46 EST — Regular session.
- U.S. RBOB gasoline futures fell more than 3% as crude slid and inventories stayed heavy.
- Refiner shares including Valero, Marathon Petroleum and Phillips 66 traded lower midday.
- Traders are watching the next EIA inventory report on Feb. 19 for clues on demand and refinery runs.
U.S. gasoline futures fell sharply on Thursday, dragging refiner stocks lower as traders leaned into the latest signs of soft fuel demand. RBOB gasoline futures — the benchmark for U.S. wholesale gasoline — were down 6.7 cents, or 3.4%, at $1.9118 a gallon. Valero Energy slid 2.7%, Marathon Petroleum fell 3.5% and Phillips 66 dropped 2.3% in midday trade. (Investing)
The move matters because gasoline is the biggest day-to-day fuel barometer for the U.S. consumer, and swings in wholesale prices can quickly squeeze or lift refinery margins. Those margins set the tone for refinery runs, and they filter through to pump prices with a lag.
The pressure is landing as traders juggle two competing ideas: demand usually firms into spring, but supply has not really tightened. Another inventory build keeps that argument alive, and it comes as crude oil prices back off from recent geopolitics-driven bumps.
U.S. gasoline stocks rose by 1.2 million barrels to 259.1 million barrels in the week ended Feb. 6, the Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday. Crude inventories climbed by 8.5 million barrels to 428.8 million, while distillate stockpiles — diesel and heating oil — fell by 2.7 million to 124.7 million; refinery utilization slipped to 89.4%. Analysts polled by Reuters had expected a 793,000-barrel rise in crude, a 0.4 million-barrel draw in gasoline and a 1.3 million-barrel drop in distillates, the EIA data showed. (BOE Report)
Crude’s slide added to the weight on gasoline. Brent was down 1.8% at $68.14 a barrel and U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 1.9% to $63.39 by mid-morning, after the International Energy Agency cut its demand growth view for 2026. “It just ran out of steam,” Phil Flynn, senior analyst at Price Futures Group, said. (Reuters)
The hit to refiners comes on a day when the sector also had company news. PBF Energy reported a surprise quarterly profit, helped by stronger refining margins, but the stock was still down in midday trade. “Oil markets remain dynamic, and many recent headwinds are now converting to tailwinds for refiners,” CEO Matthew Lucey said. (Reuters)
Some analysts argue the bigger picture for refiners is still not terrible, even with gasoline sliding today. The 3-2-1 crack spread — a rough measure of the margin from turning crude into gasoline and diesel — was around $25 a barrel as of Wednesday, and “2026 will be another strong year for cracks given demand is outpacing supply,” Citigroup analyst Vikram Bagri wrote in a report. (Rigzone)
Still, a lot can go wrong for the gasoline bulls. If inventories keep building into March, cracks can compress fast, refiners may dial back runs, and the market can price in weaker driving demand before it ever shows up at the pump.
On the consumer side, the backdrop is still one of cheap fuel. The U.S. national average for regular gasoline has hovered around $2.90 a gallon and has stayed below $3 for weeks, according to recent EIA data cited by Investopedia. (Investopedia)
The next clear catalyst is the EIA’s weekly petroleum status report due on Feb. 19, when traders will look for a shift in gasoline inventories, refinery utilization and imports as the market edges toward the spring demand season. (Eia)
