New York, Feb 19, 2026, 12:31 EST — Regular session
- Gold ticked up in New York morning action, staying above the $5,000 an ounce mark.
- Fresh geopolitical risk came onto the radar, with traders also pointing to ongoing debate over the Fed’s next step.
- Friday brings the next catalyst: U.S. PCE inflation data.
Spot gold edged up 0.6% to $5,007.46 an ounce as of 11:14 a.m. EST. U.S. gold futures for April ticked 0.3% higher, landing at $5,025.80. Investors kept an eye on U.S.-Iran tensions, a steeper-than-expected fall in weekly U.S. jobless claims, and the inflation report just ahead, all lending support to the metal. “We’re being whipsawed and moving sideways with volatility,” said Daniel Pavilonis, senior market strategist at RJO Futures. He still sees the potential for “one more leg down.” Reuters
It’s an uneasy moment for traders. Gold is working as a kind of battleground between geopolitical safe-haven demand and the oscillating U.S. rate expectations that drive the dollar and Treasury yields. For Friday, economists polled by Dow Jones Newswires and The Wall Street Journal are looking for a 2.8% year-over-year print on the Fed’s favored PCE inflation index, with the core at 3.0%. Deutsche Bank’s Justin Weidner and his team cautioned that the Fed might wait for “more clarity” before moving ahead with another cut. Investopedia
Wednesday set the stage. Spot gold surged 2.22% to $4,985.46 after Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations wrapped up with no resolution, while renewed supply jitters followed Iran’s temporary shutdown of parts of the Strait of Hormuz, according to Reuters. “This double-whammy … has led to higher oil and higher gold prices,” said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group. Reuters
Broader markets weren’t especially helpful. The dollar index added 0.14% to hit 97.84, while the U.S. 10-year yield nudged up to 4.09% as traders sifted through a batch of U.S. data and Fed minutes revealing some division on the rate outlook. Still, spot gold picked up roughly 0.7% during Thursday’s session, Reuters reported in its wider markets roundup.
Mining stocks are picking up, responding to stronger prices. Gold Fields reported that annual profit more than doubled, bumping up payouts to shareholders as both gold prices and production climbed. CEO Mike Fraser described discussions with Ghana on a planned royalty increase as “constructive,” though he cautioned that governments need to be “measured” on competitiveness. Reuters
Looking at futures, CME Group data pointed to brisk activity in the benchmark Comex contract, as the most-active gold futures contract was recently up about 0.2%, hovering near $5,020 an ounce during mid-morning U.S. hours.
Silver added to its rally following yesterday’s big surge. Platinum was modestly higher; palladium moved lower.
On the downside, the risks are clear. If PCE prints hotter than forecasts, traders could start betting again on higher-for-longer rates—yields and the dollar might jump, and leveraged longs could be forced to unwind. And if tensions cool off in the Middle East, safe-haven demand would likely fade as well.
Traders’ focus turns to Friday, Feb. 20, with the PCE data release on deck. They’re also watching for shifts in the risk tone from fresh headlines on U.S.-Iran talks or troop posture—anything that could shake up sentiment fast.
