SYDNEY, June 30, 2026, 04:04 (AEST)
- Goodman Group ASX:GMG finished at A$32.10 on Monday, gaining 0.28% as it traded ex-distribution.
- Including the 15-cent payout, the stock’s total gain for the day came to roughly 0.75%, topping the S&P/ASX 200’s 0.68% move.
- Goodman made up 40.50% of the listed-property benchmark followed by State Street’s ASX property ETF as of June 26.
- Morningstar’s Yingqi Tan pointed to leasing clarity as the key question for data centres after Goodman reported that data centres make up 73% of its work in progress.
Goodman Group ASX:GMG closed up 0.28% at A$32.10 on Monday, but investors who watched only the price move missed the bigger story. The stock went ex a 15-cent distribution for the half ending June 30. Factoring that in, the actual return was closer to A$0.24, or 0.75%, based on the prior close of A$32.01.
| Monday measure | Latest read | Investor take |
|---|---|---|
| Goodman price return | +0.28% to A$32.10 | Price move trailed the ASX 200 |
| Goodman distribution-adjusted return | About +0.75% | Distribution made up the slack |
| S&P/ASX 200 | +0.68% to 8,823.40 | Main index outperformed |
| S&P/ASX 200 Real Estate sector | -0.89% on Market Index’s June 29 table | Goodman was ahead of other property stocks |
| Goodman volume | 3.75 mln vs 4.86 mln average | Trade was quieter than usual |
Goodman doesn’t trade like a regular yield stock anymore. Google Finance pegs its dividend yield at about 0.79%, way under the S&P/ASX 200 A-REIT index yield of 3.39% from State Street. Still, State Street gives Goodman a 40.50% weight in that benchmark, the biggest in the listed property group.
The index has a heavy data-centre tilt through Goodman. State Street’s top 10 holdings list Scentre Group ASX:SCG at 12.67%, Charter Hall Group ASX:CHC 6.91%, Stockland ASX:SGP 6.50%, and Dexus (ASX:DXS) 3.82%, all much smaller bets than Goodman.
Goodman said total work in progress reached A$14.5 billion as of March 31 in its May-quarter update. Data centres made up 73% of work underway. The group expects WIP to be about A$18 billion by June 2026. Current yield on cost for WIP is running at 8.0%.
| Goodman Q3 FY26 development data | Completions | Commencements | Work in progress |
|---|---|---|---|
| Value | A$3.0 bln | A$4.0 bln | A$14.5 bln |
| Yield | 6.4% | 8.7% | 8.0% |
| Pre-committed | 89% | 23% | 37% |
| Weighted average lease term | 9.4 yrs | 16.2 yrs | 13.6 yrs |
| Built for third parties or partnerships | 90% | 30% | 43% |
Investors are still watching the lower pre-commitment number. Goodman pointed to the fall in WIP pre-commitment being linked to its bigger data-center pipeline, which often starts before any customer leases are signed. Morningstar’s Yingqi Tan said in a late May note that the bigger issue is “lack of clarity on leasing”, but left her A$29 fair value unchanged. Goodman
CEO Greg Goodman sounded upbeat, saying the company has shifted focus to “infrastructure-scale industrial assets and data centres.” He said Goodman is on track for at least 9% operating EPS growth in FY26. Customer discussions are moving forward at sites, Goodman said. Goodman
The valuation gap looks clear. MarketScreener’s average analyst price target sits at A$34.66, about 8% above the last close, from 13 analysts. On Investing.com, a 14-analyst survey put 11 buys, two holds and no sells, with the price target spread between A$29 and A$40.
| Valuation marker | Level | Gap to A$32.10 close |
|---|---|---|
| MarketScreener mean target | A$34.66 | Up 7.98% |
| Investing.com average target | A$34.663 | Up 7.98% |
| Morningstar fair value | A$29.00 | Roughly -9.7% |
| Investing.com target range | A$29-A$40 | Large range |
Pure data centre names stayed strong. Nextdc Ltd ASX:NXT, flagged on Google Finance as a peer, added 3.70% at A$14.58 on Monday. Goodman traded up less, but its distribution-adjusted return suggested investors didn’t drop it for the payout.
Goodman set June 30 as the record date for its 15-cent distribution. The payout hits on Aug. 26.
