London, July 1, 2026, 20:04 BST
- GSK last traded at 1,934.5p on the bid and 1,935.5p on the offer, sliding 51p or 2.57% after the London close. The FTSE 100 lost 0.18%.
- The drop in one day wiped out roughly 73% of the 70p dividend GSK forecasts for 2026, according to company numbers and market data.
- GSK’s analyst consensus shows just 3.6% sales growth for the group between 2026 and 2031 as General Medicines declines.
- Nuvalent’s tender offer is set to close July 14 if it isn’t extended, putting deal timing as the next catalyst for the stock.
c (LON:GSK; NYSE:GSK) dropped more than the main London indexes on Wednesday, with the move lining up against its own dividend outlook. Shares lost 51p, nearly 73% of the 70p dividend GSK has forecast for 2026. The stock didn’t find much support from the usual defensive income trade.
GSK closed with a bid of 1,934.5p and offer of 1,935.5p according to Hargreaves Lansdown, 2.57% lower on the day. The FTSE 100 (INDEXFTSE:UKX) slipped 0.18%. Reuters said healthcare stocks lost 1.6%, GSK dropped about 2.5% and AstraZeneca PLC (LON:AZN) fell 1.7%.
| Wednesday check | Figure | Market read |
|---|---|---|
| GSK shares slid | -2.57% | Trailed the FTSE 100 by 2.39 points |
| GSK lost in price | -51p | Down by almost three-quarters of the predicted 2026 dividend |
| FTSE 100 change | -0.18% | Index down just a touch |
| UK healthcare group | -1.6% | GSK underperformed sector by about 1 point |
| AstraZeneca move | -1.7% | GSK fell further than its bigger UK pharma rival |
This matters for the long-term sales story. GSK’s latest analyst consensus, based on estimates from 14 firms like Bank of America, Barclays, Citi, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan and UBS, points to Specialty and Vaccines driving growth. General Medicines stays weak.
| GSK consensus, £m unless stated | 2026 | 2031 | Change | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Specialty turnover | 14,940 | 16,876 | up 1,936 | up 13.0% |
| Vaccines turnover | 9,148 | 10,396 | up 1,248 | up 13.6% |
| General Medicines turnover | 9,579 | 7,607 | down 1,972 | down 20.6% |
| Group turnover | 33,667 | 34,879 | up 1,212 | up 3.6% |
| Operating profit | 10,270 | 10,509 | up 239 | up 2.3% |
| Operating margin | 30.5% | 30.1% | off 0.4 points | — |
The hit from General Medicines is big. Sales in that unit are seen dropping £1.97 billion, which wipes out roughly 62% of the expected £3.18 billion gain in Specialty and Vaccines through 2031. So overall turnover rises just £1.21 billion over five years, and operating profit is set to be barely changed in the same set of consensus numbers.
Nuvalent Inc. NASDAQ:NUVL is now more than just a merger headline for GSK holders. GSK is offering $124 a share in cash for Nuvalent. The tender is not tied to financing, and it’s set to expire one minute after 11:59 p.m. Eastern on July 14, unless GSK extends it.
GSK said last month it will buy Nuvalent in a transaction worth $10.6 billion, or £8.0 billion. The investment comes to $9.4 billion, or £7.1 billion, after adjusting for cash on hand. GSK said its 2026 targets—7% to 9% growth for core operating profit and core EPS—will stay the same even after the deal. But the company expects low single-digit dilution to core EPS for 2026, 2027 and 2028.
GSK CEO Luke Miels called the Nuvalent deal “three products in one” and described the company’s cancer push as a “brick-by-brick” rebuild. James Eugene at Verso Investment Management, which owns GSK shares, told Reuters the Nuvalent acquisition is “a very large brick.” Elena Meng from Gabelli Funds said: “What’s new is the size of the commitment.” Reuters
GSK picked up two late-stage lung cancer drugs in the deal, zidesamtinib and neladalkib. Both are now under FDA review, GSK said, with decision dates on Sept. 18, 2026, and Nov. 27, 2026. If the agency clears them, launches could follow this year.
Ketan Patel, a fund manager at Whitefriars, told Reuters GSK is “playing catchup” in oncology and will probably need to “pay up to play”. That’s what traders saw in Wednesday’s price: the dividend is clear for now, while payback from Nuvalent sales and earnings mostly waits until after 2026. Reuters
