SYDNEY, March 30, 2026, 03:14 UTC+11
Oil might soar to $200 a barrel if fighting with Iran stretches into June and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, Macquarie Group Ltd strategists cautioned. The strait, a key chokepoint for roughly 20% of worldwide oil and liquefied natural gas flows, remains a crucial variable.
This call is significant: the energy shock’s ripple is hitting both policy and markets. Brent jumped 4.2% to $112.57 on Sunday. India dialed back kerosene restrictions and Egypt hit the brakes on state projects that chew through fuel, those moves aimed at shielding consumers and cutting down on usage.
At Macquarie, this note shifts attention once again to a business that management in February singled out for a boost in short-term commodities income. During its Feb. 10 third-quarter update, the Sydney-based group reported better profit across all main units and flagged near-term growth for its Commodities and Global Markets arm.
Vikas Dwivedi and his team gave the $200 scenario a 40% probability in a note dated March 27, Bloomberg reported. For their main forecast—60% odds—they’re anticipating the conflict wraps up by the end of March.
Macquarie’s stance ranks among the most bullish as brokerages reassess risks. Barclays, for its part, projected that shutting the Strait of Hormuz for an extended stretch could erase 13 million to 14 million barrels a day from global supply, pushing Brent to $100 if the outage goes through April and up to $110 if it drags into May.
The pain wouldn’t just hit drivers filling up. “As long as transit through the Strait of Hormuz is affected, all Asian countries will feel the pinch,” said DBS Bank analyst Suvro Sarkar. On top of higher consumer prices, capital goods costs climb, too, according to NORD/LB analyst Thomas Wybierek, who singled out chemicals and agriculture as particularly vulnerable. Reuters
But Macquarie’s worst-case scenario faces some immediate challenges. On March 29, two LPG tankers heading to India managed to get through the strait, and that same day, Pakistan brought together regional players to discuss reopening the waterway. Both developments suggest that even limited movement—either at sea or on the diplomatic front—could help cap any dramatic surge.
Macquarie covers everything from asset management and banking to commodities, global markets, and its Macquarie Capital arm. In the most recent quarterly update, Chief Executive Shemara Wikramanayake described trading as satisfactory. The group remains cautious, keeping an eye on risks from geopolitical events.
