London, June 17, 2026, 11:02 BST
- National Grid shares fell about 1.2% in London after a stronger Tuesday close.
- Berenberg lifted its target price but kept a neutral stance; BofA stayed positive on the investment case.
- Investors are weighing the utility’s £70 billion grid plan, dividend timetable and RIIO-T3 regulatory returns.
National Grid shares fell in London on Wednesday, giving back part of the previous session’s gain as the broader UK market edged lower and investors weighed fresh broker support against the cost of the company’s heavy investment programme.
The stock was down 1.23% at about 1,209 pence by 10:46 BST, while the FTSE 100 slipped 0.11%, according to Barclays price data delayed by at least 15 minutes. The move followed a 1.24% rise on Tuesday, when National Grid closed at £12.24 and outperformed a 0.61% gain in the FTSE 100. Barclays Smart Investor
The pullback matters because National Grid is being priced less as a slow utility bond proxy and more as a large regulated infrastructure builder. Its appeal now rests on whether regulators allow enough return on new grid spending to offset higher debt, construction risk and the pressure of dividend commitments.
Broker activity has kept the stock in focus. Berenberg analyst Andrew Fisher kept a Neutral rating on National Grid on Tuesday but raised the target price to 1,350 pence from 1,300 pence, according to MarketScreener. A day earlier, BofA kept a Buy rating, citing the group’s investment pipeline and improved regulatory visibility, though it cut its price objective. MarketScreener
That visibility is tied to RIIO-T3, Ofgem’s price-control regime for electricity and gas transmission networks that runs from 2026 to 2031. Price controls decide how much revenue network companies can earn, while using incentives and output targets to push investment, reliability and service standards.
National Grid has said the RIIO-T3 framework for its UK electricity transmission arm includes a real allowed cost of equity of 6.12% at 60% gearing, a key measure of the return regulators permit shareholders to earn on funded network assets. Rival SSE’s transmission business has also accepted Ofgem’s RIIO-T3 final determination, making the framework a sector-wide test for UK grid investment returns. Nationalgrid
The company is trying to sell that spending as growth, not just obligation. Chief Executive Zoë Yujnovich said in May that National Grid was starting the “largest investment programme” in its history, with at least £70 billion planned over five years across the UK and the U.S. Northeast. The company reported underlying earnings per share — profit per share adjusted for certain one-off items — of 78.0p for the year to March 31 and record capital investment of £11.6 billion.
There is a near-term shareholder date too. National Grid set the scrip dividend reference price for its 2025/26 final dividend at 1,197.70p per ordinary share, with ordinary shareholders facing a June 18 election deadline and the 32.14p final dividend due to be paid on July 23. A scrip dividend lets investors take new shares instead of cash.
Peers were also softer, suggesting the move was not only stock-specific. SSE was down 0.93% in delayed trading, according to Hargreaves Lansdown, while Barclays data showed National Grid’s broader UK index backdrop weaker in mid-morning dealing.
The risk is execution. National Grid has regulatory cover for much of its plan, but higher financing costs, storm costs in its U.S. operations, construction delays or tougher-than-expected regulator decisions could narrow returns. Reuters reported last month that the company missed annual profit expectations after higher U.S. storm-repair costs, even as it reaffirmed its 2027 earnings-growth forecast.
