New York, February 17, 2026, 12:52 EST — Regular session
Oil prices came under pressure Tuesday, with Brent dropping roughly 2%—putting it on track for its softest finish in two weeks—as Iran hinted at movement in nuclear negotiations with the U.S. Brent crude lost $1.41, or 2.1%, hitting $67.24 a barrel by 11:50 a.m. EST. U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) slipped 65 cents to $62.24, down 1%, after earlier price swings of over a dollar. “Sharp two-way swings” are probably here to stay, given that diplomacy is in the driver’s seat now, not demand, said Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of SS WealthStreet. (Reuters)
The pullback is notable because oil prices had been padded by a geopolitical “risk premium”—that buffer built in on the chance supplies might be interrupted—as crude climbed from about $60 to nearly $70 a barrel over the past few weeks, Citi pointed out. According to Citi, its baseline expectation is for agreements with Iran and between Russia and Ukraine “by or during the summer,” something the bank thinks would send Brent sliding back to around $60–$62 a barrel. (Reuters)
Earlier in Asia, holidays kept trading thin, with several markets closed for Lunar New Year. WTI’s early session moves mirrored Monday’s action, as the contract hadn’t settled due to the U.S. Presidents Day holiday, according to a Reuters report published by Dawn. (Dawn)
The Strait of Hormuz remained a focal point for risk on the day. According to Iran’s semi-official Fars news agency, sections of the waterway would be shut for several hours Tuesday while the Revolutionary Guards held drills, with “security precautions” given as the reason to protect shipping. (Reuters)
According to shipping executives, there’s not much room to maneuver if the disruption drags on. “There is no alternative route to the Strait of Hormuz,” said Jakob Larsen, a shipping industry official, in comments to The National. The outlet noted that over 20 million barrels move through the strait daily—about a fifth of the world’s oil supply. (The National)
On the supply front, traders kept an eye on signs more barrels are coming back. According to Channel News Asia, which referenced Reuters, oil output at Kazakhstan’s massive Tengiz field has been picking up following a January disruption, a development that’s adding downward pressure to near-term balances. (CNA)
Diplomatic efforts are coming from several directions. According to The Associated Press, the U.S. and Iran sat down for another round of indirect discussions in Geneva, just as Washington increased its military footprint in the area. At the same time, the U.S. brought Russia and Ukraine to the table for separate talks. Should any of this hold, it could end up shifting the outlook for sanctions and supply before year’s end. (AP News)
War risk remains. A drone strike sparked a fire at Russia’s Ilsky refinery, damaging an oil-products reservoir, local officials told Reuters. It’s still unclear if the roughly 138,000 bpd facility saw any operational disruption, the report said. (Reuters)
Right now, traders are weighing the possible shape of any agreement. “There’s speculation that Iran could agree to dilute its most highly enriched uranium in exchange for the full lifting of financial sanctions, but it’s not clear if that will be enough,” said Aarin Chiekrie, analyst at Hargreaves Lansdown. (The Daily Star)
On deck: U.S. inventory numbers. The Energy Information Administration drops its weekly petroleum status report this Thursday, Feb. 19, at 12:00 p.m. Eastern—pushed back by Presidents Day. Traders are zeroed in on crude and product stock moves, hoping for a clearer signal on demand as Iran-related headlines stay unpredictable. (Eia)
