London, July 3, 2026, 15:04 BST
- Rio Tinto plc (LON:RIO) traded at 7,078p as of 15:04 BST, off 0.04%. A UK blue-chip index proxy was ahead about 0.1%.
- Fortescue Ltd ASX:FMG dropped 3.16% in Sydney trading, trailing Rio Tinto Ltd ASX:RIO by around 3.1 percentage points for the session.
- China’s state iron ore buyer has focused on Fortescue’s portside cargoes with lower grades. Rio isn’t affected, but the price risk could spread.
- Rio now faces the question of whether gains in copper and lithium are enough to balance out a possible hit to iron ore prices.
Rio Tinto plc (LON:RIO) barely moved in London on Friday, with trading steady for the miner as it remains exposed to iron ore. China’s state buyer increased the pressure on lower-grade shipments from Fortescue Ltd ASX:FMG. Shares traded at 7,078p at 15:04 BST, sitting between an intraday high of 7,179p and a low of 7,068p. The quote was during the regular London Stock Exchange hours, 8:00-16:30 BST.
Rio’s U.S.-listed ADR NYSE:RIO didn’t trade as U.S. markets were shut July 3 for Independence Day. London shares showed the move.
| Market snapshot | Latest quoted level | Day move | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rio Tinto plc (LON:RIO), London | 7,078p | -0.04% | Google Finance, 15:04 BST |
| Rio Tinto Ltd ASX:RIO, Sydney | A$171.16 | -0.06% | MarketWatch, Sydney close |
| Fortescue Ltd ASX:FMG, Sydney | A$18.36 | -3.16% | Trading Economics |
| BHP Group Ltd ASX:BHP, Sydney | A$60.50 | +1.56% | Google Finance, Sydney close |
| UK blue-chip proxy | 10,666 | +0.13% | Trading Economics GB100 |
By the close in Sydney, Fortescue trailed Rio’s Australian listing by around 3.1 percentage points. That’s the key trade right now. Market is pricing in China risk by grade, cargo and company, not just dumping all the major iron ore stocks.
China Mineral Resources Group verbally told some steel mills in China to stop taking deliveries of Fortescue Super Special Fines and Fortune Fines starting July 15, Reuters reported Thursday. Both products are considered lower-grade iron ore. Fortescue had 7.22 million tonnes of Super Special Fines at key Chinese ports as of June 30, almost 5% of total portside iron ore stocks, according to Reuters calculations.
Rio didn’t show up in that order, but the risk to Rio is clear. CMRG started in 2022 to centralize iron ore purchases. Reuters Breakingviews columnist Antony Currie said Friday China buys about 70% of seaborne iron ore globally. He pointed to an Australian government warning that CMRG could force benchmark prices lower over the medium term.
Iron ore remains Rio’s biggest money-maker. The 2025 annual report shows iron ore underlying EBITDA at $15.2 billion, down from last year’s $17.0 billion. Rio’s full-year numbers show group underlying EBITDA at $25.36 billion, operating cash flow at $16.8 billion and net debt at $14.36 billion.
| Rio lever | Fresh data | Investor read-through |
|---|---|---|
| Iron ore | 62% iron ore CFR Tianjin slips to $98.25 a tonne, a 5.26% drop over the last month | Lower prices hit the main cash flow directly. |
| Copper | LME three-month copper last closed at $13,326 a tonne, data is one day old | Copper gives Rio another way to grow, less shaky than iron ore. |
| Oyu Tolgoi | Rio says output at the mine should average about 500,000 tonnes of copper per year from 2028 to 2036 | Higher volumes help balance things, but not enough to fix the short-term impact from weaker iron ore. |
| Lithium | Rio targets lithium output of 200,000 tonnes by 2028 after Arcadium deal | Investors now have a set target for capacity to watch. |
Rio said this week it reached a deal with Mongolia to change the Oyu Tolgoi shareholder loan interest rate and move to bring shareholder distributions forward. Copper boss Katie Jackson said the deal showed Rio’s “commitment to the long-term success of Oyu Tolgoi.” Rio owns 66% of Oyu Tolgoi. Mongolia has the other 34%. Rio Tinto
In lithium, Rio’s aluminium and lithium chief Jérôme Pécresse told Reuters the company aims to triple output by 2028. “We want to show that we can build on time and on budget,” he said. Rio is targeting at least 61,000 tonnes of lithium production this year and 200,000 tonnes of capacity by 2028. Reuters
Fortescue shares took another blow as Goldman Sachs analyst Paul Young downgraded the stock to “sell” from “neutral” and slashed his target price to A$16.90 from A$18.90. He pointed to rising mine replacement and decarbonisation capital spending as the reason for calling out “headwinds to cash flow.” The Bull
For Rio shareholders, Friday’s trading suggests the market isn’t treating China’s move against Fortescue as something that hits Rio directly. The bigger test is if CMRG can push down benchmark iron ore prices while Rio’s still funding its copper and lithium plans off a balance sheet that had $14.36 billion in net debt at the end of 2025.
Rio Tinto will post its second-quarter operations review for 2026 on July 15, with half-year numbers due July 29.
