London, May 4, 2026, 18:06 BST
With London markets shut Monday for the Early May Bank Holiday, the FTSE 100 sat out the latest round of global selling. The London Stock Exchange had flagged May 4 as a non-trading and non-settlement day for sterling trades.
This time, UK investors come back on Tuesday to a different landscape: oil prices have jumped, European stocks slid, and the Middle East is once again squarely on traders’ radar. The FTSE 100 leans hard toward energy, mining, banks, and global pharma giants—so while a holiday may push back the reaction, it won’t prevent the market from catching up.
London’s FTSE 100 slipped 0.1% to finish Friday at 10,363.93. The FTSE 250, with its heavier UK focus, managed a 0.3% gain. Activity was light before the public holiday.
Europe fired the opening shot on Monday. The STOXX 600 shed 1% to close at 605.51—the sharpest daily drop in nearly a month—as losses swept across most sectors. “European markets were more exposed to the impact of higher commodity prices than the U.S. economy,” said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone, flagging a straightforward risk for UK assets with London set to reopen. Reuters
Oil took center stage after Brent futures surged $5.75, or 5.3%, to $113.92 a barrel by 1603 GMT, as Iran intensified attacks on both the United Arab Emirates and ships in the Gulf, according to Reuters. UBS’s Giovanni Staunovo said the outlook for prices is “skewed to the upside” with flows through the Strait of Hormuz still limited. Reuters
Shell and BP are likely to draw attention Tuesday, despite pulling the FTSE down on Friday as crude prices slipped. It’s a tricky spot: oil majors stand to gain from pricier crude, yet a sharp jump in energy prices tends to stoke inflation worries—bad news for banks, retailers, airlines, and others sensitive to interest rates.
AstraZeneca is still drawing attention—shares lost 3.1% Friday after a U.S. advisory panel decided not to back its experimental breast cancer drug. Over at NatWest, the stock slipped 3.4%. Stronger first-quarter profit didn’t help, as the market zeroed in on softer non-interest income instead of the headline earnings.
Rates risk is also weighing heavily. According to Reuters, traders have now dropped bets on a U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut this year, while pricing in hikes from the European Central Bank and Bank of England. A 25-basis-point shift reflects a quarter-percentage-point change.
U.S. stocks lost ground by midday Monday. According to Reuters, the Dow slipped 0.87%, while the S&P 500 was off 0.45% and the Nasdaq shed 0.41% in New York. Reports out of the Strait of Hormuz and Brent’s move above $114 kept investors on edge. Brock Weimer at Edward Jones noted that if oil prices hold above $100, last year’s fiscal stimulus could serve more as a “shock absorber.” Reuters
Here’s the flip side, and it’s not trivial. Should Hormuz shipping smooth out or oil prices drop swiftly, Tuesday’s reopening in the UK might turn out less tense than Europe’s signals hint—earnings still lend a hand to some corners of global stocks. But if crude holds at elevated levels, the FTSE faces a stickier setup: oil producers could see a lift in revenues, while sentiment darkens for consumer names, financials, and firms sensitive to higher borrowing costs.
The UK stock market’s narrative isn’t about skipping Monday’s session. Instead, attention turns to the space left between Friday’s muted finish and what Tuesday’s pricing may reveal.
