LONDON, March 9, 2026, 21:11 GMT
Shares in Anglo American (AAL.L) dropped 3.2% to finish at 3,127 pence on Monday, after JPMorgan downgraded the miner to “underweight”—signaling it now sees the stock trailing the sector. London’s FTSE 100 index slid 0.3% as oil-driven selling weighed. 1
Over the past year, Anglo has spun off its platinum arm, cut a deal to sell nickel, and set out plans to carve out De Beers, all amid an ongoing merger process with Teck Resources. That narrows the spotlight to copper and premium iron ore—precisely as JPMorgan’s stance on both has softened. 2
JPMorgan’s Dominic O’Kane and his team aren’t seeing much to stir the pot in industrial metals right now, calling prices “benign in our view.” They’re penciling in a downside scenario for copper at $9,500 per tonne for 2026-27, and iron ore at $90. The bank sees more than 10% further downside ahead for European mining and steel shares, and has taken Anglo down to underweight from neutral. Antofagasta and Rio Tinto were also cut. 3
Anglo’s figures lay out the stakes for investors reacting to changes in metals prices. The company posted a $3.7 billion loss for 2025, hit by a $2.3 billion write-down at De Beers. Yet underlying EBITDA, its key operating profit metric, remained steady at $6.4 billion, and net debt dropped to $8.6 billion. 2
On Feb. 20, chief executive Duncan Wanblad said Anglo is “continuing to strengthen” its balance sheet and called the De Beers sale “advanced.” Wanblad added he was “optimistic” about signing a De Beers agreement in 2026. For the Teck deal, approvals could wrap up sometime between September 2026 and March 2027. 2
Conditions worsened Monday, with UK stocks dropping to five-week lows, Reuters said. Oil spiked earlier on renewed conflict in the Middle East, stoking inflation concerns. “No obvious offramp” from the crisis, IG analyst Tony Sycamore noted. 4
BHP and Rio Tinto’s latest numbers reveal copper grabbing a larger chunk of profits as iron ore loses steam—highlighting exactly why Anglo feels the blow from any dip in copper sentiment while it’s in the middle of a transformation. According to Anglo, its planned Teck acquisition would push shareholders’ copper exposure above 70%. 5
The bearish argument isn’t a lock. Copper’s had a strong run this past year, with tight supply and electrification trends pushing prices higher. If there’s only a brief energy jolt or growth bounces back faster than JPMorgan expects, that could unravel their thesis. 5
At this point, investors are laser-focused on execution. What happens with binding bids for De Beers, movement on selling off steelmaking coal and nickel, and the green light for the Teck deal — which, according to Anglo, would put them as the world’s fifth-largest copper player — will weigh much more than words on whether Monday’s decline marks a brief lull or signals a harder rerating ahead. 2
