WASHINGTON, March 10, 2026, 18:49 EDT
NASA’s retired Van Allen Probe A was due to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere later on Tuesday, nearly 14 years after launch, with the U.S. Space Force projecting a descent at about 7:45 p.m. EDT. The space agency said most of the 1,323-pound spacecraft should burn up, though some parts may survive. 1
The return matters now because it is happening within hours and without a targeted landing area if debris reaches the ground. NASA put the chance of harm to anyone on Earth at about 1 in 4,200 — low, but not zero. 2
It is also arriving well ahead of schedule. NASA had expected Probe A to fall back in 2034, but said the current solar cycle — including solar maximum, the busiest phase of the Sun’s roughly 11-year cycle — expanded the upper atmosphere and increased drag on the craft. 1
Probe A and its twin, Probe B, launched in August 2012 to study the Van Allen belts, rings of charged particles trapped by Earth’s magnetic field that help shield the planet from cosmic radiation and solar storms. Built for a two-year mission, the pair stayed in service until 2019. 1
Jonathan McDowell, an astrophysicist who tracks satellites and launches, said the timing remained unusually loose because of the spacecraft’s orbit. He told Scientific American that “it might already be down, or it might not be down until late Wednesday night.” 2
That uncertainty is the main drawback for anyone trying to pin down where debris could fall. NASA’s forecast allows for 24 hours on either side of the projected time, and with no planned landing zone, the final breakup path can shift sharply until late in the pass. 2
Still, falling hardware is not rare. Darren McKnight, a senior technical fellow at space-tracking company LeoLabs, told CNN that “we get about one object a week” coming down with some mass surviving to the ground. 3
Marlon Sorge, a debris expert at the Aerospace Corporation, said there had been “increasingly more awareness” since 2012 about cutting what survives re-entry. He said a mission like Van Allen might be designed differently now, as debris linked to the International Space Station and private rocket companies including SpaceX and Blue Origin has turned up on roofs, beaches and private property. 3
The mission’s data are still in use. NASA said archived readings from the probes continue to help researchers study space weather — Sun-driven disturbances that can disrupt satellites, communications, navigation and power grids — and Probe B is not expected to re-enter before 2030. NASA and the Space Force said they would keep updating the forecast as tracking data improved. 1
