Perth, March 14, 2026, 05:38 AWST
Northern Star Resources shares closed down 18.75% at A$21.75 on Friday after the miner said it would struggle to hit the low end of its fiscal 2026 production target because of lingering problems at Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines, or KCGM, and weaker mining productivity at Jundee. 1
The setback lands hard because Northern Star had been riding strong gold prices only a month ago. On Feb. 11, the stock hit a record A$30.16 after first-half profit rose 49%, so the latest warning revives doubts over whether high bullion prices can offset operational slips at its main assets. 2
Investors had already absorbed one guidance cut in January, when Northern Star lowered fiscal 2026 output guidance to 1.6 million-1.7 million ounces from 1.7 million-1.85 million ounces after maintenance and operating issues across its mines. Friday’s update pointed instead to production of above 1.5 million ounces, leaving far less room for another stumble before year-end. 3
Northern Star said gold sales so far in the March quarter were hit by weaker-than-planned milling at KCGM and lower mining productivity across several operating areas, especially Jundee. Gold sales for January and February totaled 220,000 ounces, the company said. 4
Chief executive Stuart Tonkin said management would not chase “short-term guidance above all else” and instead wanted the group at “full potential from the start of FY27.” He also said the company would give the market a more detailed medium-term production, cost and capital outlook later this year after investors pushed for clearer numbers. 5
For now, the hinge is the KCGM mill expansion, which Northern Star said remains on track for commissioning in early fiscal 2027. About 800 contractors are working on the plant and another 400 on enabling works, while roughly 100,000 ounces of high-grade ore had been stockpiled at the end of February for processing in fiscal 2027. 5
The broader market offered little cover. The S&P/ASX 200 closed down 0.14% on Friday, and Reuters reported Northern Star’s slide dragged on gold shares and the mining sub-index as higher oil prices stirred inflation worries ahead of next week’s Reserve Bank of Australia meeting. 6
The key risk now sits at KCGM’s throughput, or how much ore the mill can process, until the new plant starts up. Northern Star said its fiscal 2026 estimate still carries both downside and upside potential, and the review at Jundee could lead to staff and equipment being shifted during the June quarter. 5
The next hard test comes on April 22, when Northern Star is due to release its March-quarter production and cost update. Until then, investors are left weighing whether a stronger fiscal 2027 can repair confidence in a stock that was trading at record highs barely four weeks ago. 5
