SYDNEY, March 19, 2026, 10:30 AEDT
Northern Star Resources was last quoted around A$19.6, below Wednesday’s A$20.95 close, as investors kept repricing the miner after its second fiscal 2026 output cut in three months and a fresh round of broker target cuts. 1
That matters because the selloff is coming even with gold still exceptionally high. Morningstar said spot gold was about US$5,100 an ounce, yet Northern Star remains well below the A$31.96 high hit earlier this month as the market shifts from being a simple gold-price trade to execution risk — the chance mine plans and projects run late or below plan — at Kalgoorlie and Jundee. 2
In its March 13 operating update, Northern Star said January and February gold sales totaled 220,000 ounces and its best estimate was for fiscal 2026 production of above 1.50 million ounces. The company cited weaker-than-planned milling at Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines, or KCGM, and lower mining productivity in several areas, especially Jundee.
Chief executive Stuart Tonkin said management would not pursue “short-term guidance above all else” if that risked the switch to the new plant in fiscal 2027, or FY27. Northern Star said the KCGM mill expansion remained on track for commissioning early in FY27, with about 800 contractors on the plant and another 400 on enabling works, while roughly 100,000 ounces of high-grade ore had been stockpiled for later processing. 3
The latest warning was not isolated. On Jan. 2, Northern Star cut FY26 group production guidance to 1.6 million-1.7 million ounces from 1.7 million-1.85 million ounces, and on Jan. 20 it raised all-in sustaining cost guidance to A$2,600-A$2,800 an ounce from A$2,300-A$2,700. All-in sustaining cost is a common mining measure that combines operating costs and the capital needed to keep a mine running. 4
Analysts have turned more cautious, though not uniformly bearish. Morningstar’s Jon Mills cut his earnings-per-share estimates for fiscal 2026-28 and said the new KCGM mill should fix most of the production problem, but he now assumes a slower ramp-up; he also wrote the shares “remain materially overvalued.” Market Index said JPMorgan cut its target to A$24 from A$39, RBC lowered its target to A$28 from A$31.50, and Jarden kept an underweight rating — meaning it expects the stock to lag the market — with a A$16.60 target. 2
The weakness has spilled across the gold space. On Monday, Northern Star fell 5.4%, while Genesis Minerals lost 4.3% and Newmont dropped 4.2%; Reuters said softer gold and a firmer U.S. dollar were weighing on the sub-index more broadly. 5
But the downside case is not the only one. If the KCGM expansion starts on time and the stockpiled higher-grade ore feeds the new mill in FY27, some of the lost value may prove deferred rather than destroyed; if the old mill stays erratic or Jundee’s problems are more structural, earnings estimates and price targets could keep moving lower. 6
Northern Star, which describes itself as one of the world’s leading gold producers with mines in Western Australia and Alaska, is due to release its March-quarter results on April 22. The company has also said it will publish medium-term production, cost and capital forecasts later this year, after investor pressure for clearer visibility as it pushes through the Kalgoorlie build-out and folds in the Hemi project from De Grey Mining. 7
