SYDNEY, March 19, 2026, 10:30 AEDT
Northern Star Resources shares hovered near A$19.6, down from Wednesday’s A$20.95 finish, as the miner faced another wave of investor recalculations after its second production downgrade for fiscal 2026 in just three months, plus new broker target reductions.
The timing is hard to miss, with the selloff landing while gold prices hover around US$5,100 an ounce, according to Morningstar. Northern Star, though, is still far off its A$31.96 peak from earlier this month. The story now is less about tracking the gold price, more about execution risk—concerns that operations at Kalgoorlie and Jundee could stumble or miss targets are taking over.
Northern Star reported in its March 13 operating update that gold sales reached 220,000 ounces across January and February. The miner put its best guess for fiscal 2026 output at more than 1.50 million ounces. Weaker-than-expected milling at Kalgoorlie Consolidated Gold Mines (KCGM) and soft mining productivity—particularly at Jundee—were blamed by the company.
Stuart Tonkin, the chief executive, made it clear: chasing “short-term guidance above all else” isn’t on the table if it jeopardizes the move to the new plant slated for fiscal 2027, or FY27. Northern Star has kept the KCGM mill expansion tracking toward early FY27 commissioning. Around 800 contractors are currently working on the plant itself, with another 400 handling enabling works. About 100,000 ounces of high-grade ore have already been stockpiled, set aside for processing down the track. NSR Ltd
This latest warning isn’t an outlier. Back on Jan. 2, Northern Star lowered its FY26 group production target, moving the range down to 1.6 million–1.7 million ounces, a cut from the previous 1.7 million–1.85 million ounces. Just a few weeks later, on Jan. 20, the company bumped up its all-in sustaining cost guidance—now A$2,600–A$2,800 an ounce, compared with A$2,300–A$2,700 before. All-in sustaining cost, a standard metric in mining, bundles both operational expenses and the capital required to keep mines operating.
Caution has crept in among analysts, but the tone isn’t outright bearish. Jon Mills at Morningstar trimmed his EPS forecasts for fiscal 2026 through 2028, saying the new KCGM mill should resolve most of the output issues—though he’s now penciling in a slower ramp. Mills also called the stock “materially overvalued.” Market Index noted several target cuts: JPMorgan slashed its price target to A$24 from A$39, RBC dropped its view to A$28 from A$31.50, and Jarden stuck with an underweight, projecting A$16.60. Morningstar
Gold stocks took a hit Monday. Northern Star slid 5.4%. Genesis Minerals gave up 4.3%. Newmont finished down 4.2%. According to Reuters, a stronger U.S. dollar and weaker gold prices pressured the whole sub-index.
Still, that’s just one scenario. Should the KCGM expansion hit its timeline and higher-grade ore from stockpiles runs through the new mill in FY27, a chunk of value that looked gone could simply show up later. But if the old mill keeps stalling out or Jundee’s issues run deeper than expected, analysts might have to keep trimming earnings forecasts and price targets.
Northern Star, calling itself a top global gold producer with assets in Western Australia and Alaska, has its March-quarter numbers set for release on April 22. The company told investors it plans to provide medium-term forecasts for output, costs, and spending later this year—something shareholders have been pushing for as Northern Star advances the Kalgoorlie expansion and integrates De Grey Mining’s Hemi project.
