New York, July 1, 2026, 18:59 EDT
- Palomar Holdings Inc NASDAQ:PLMR was up 5.7% at last check. HCI Group Inc NYSE:HCI added 1.8%. Markel Group Inc NYSE:MKL slipped 1.9%.
- StockStory screens show a narrow beat for the sector. Out of the group, 32 P&C insurers beat revenue estimates by an average of 1.9%. Stocks with faster premium growth saw most of the gains.
- Palomar’s previously cited 18.1% discount to fair value has come in to about 13% with the latest quote.
- Buybacks getting some attention in the sector. Palomar’s $200 million plan is roughly 5.5% of its market cap. HCI’s $80 million plan is about 3.5%.
U.S. property and casualty insurers are splitting into three stories in the market now: Palomar is trading on specialty premium growth, HCI on capital return and its Florida exposure, and Markel’s bigger book is seeing better underwriting weighed down by investment losses.
Palomar ended at $133.69 after hours, rising 5.7%. HCI settled at $178.64, gaining 1.8%. Markel dropped 1.9% to $1,916.64. Even though they all reported from the same Q1 P&C cycle, their valuations and earnings multiples have moved apart.
| Company | Latest quote | Day move | Market value | P/E | Investor read-through |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palomar Holdings Inc NASDAQ:PLMR | $133.69 | up 5.7% | $3.66 bln | 18.6 | Premiums up fastest, stock trades richer |
| HCI Group Inc NYSE:HCI | $178.64 | added 1.8% | $2.28 bln | 7.8 | Cheaper on multiple, buyback helps |
| Markel Group Inc NYSE:MKL | $1,916.64 | fell 1.9% | $23.98 bln | 13.9 | Margins better, investments weak |
The July 1 StockStory roundup said the 32 property and casualty stocks it tracks beat revenue estimates by an average of 1.9% and are up 7.9% since their latest earnings reports. In that group, Markel posted $3.55 billion in first-quarter revenue, flat from last year and missing estimates by 2.5%. Palomar reported $278.9 million revenue, up 59.7% and beating estimates by 5.8%.
| Q1 screen from linked articles | Revenue | Year-on-year change | Versus estimates | Stock move cited since report |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Palomar Holdings Inc NASDAQ:PLMR | $278.9 mln | up 59.7% | beat by 5.8% | up 14.0% |
| HCI Group Inc NYSE:HCI | $242.9 mln | rose 12.2% | missed by 1.1% | shares up 17.1% |
| Markel Group Inc NYSE:MKL | $3.55 bln | no growth | under by 2.5% | added 2.3% |
Palomar’s separate valuation note put the stock at 18.1% below its $154.17 fair value when shares closed at $126.32. With shares now at $133.69, the gap narrows to about 13.3%. That’s the number that matters for investors at this point: the recent rally has closed about a quarter of the original discount, and P/E is up.
Palomar’s numbers showed why investors stuck around. Gross written premiums jumped 42.4% to $629.8 million. Net earned premiums climbed 59.3%. Adjusted net income came in at $63.1 million, up 23.1%. The adjusted combined ratio was 76.0%. CEO Mac Armstrong said the growth was broad, not from a single product, and Palomar “grew across all five categories.” GlobeNewswire
HCI came up short on revenue against analyst estimates, but pre-tax income landed at $115 million, with net at $85 million and diluted EPS of $5.45. Gross loss ratio was 20.1%. CEO Paresh Patel said HCI will put earnings toward stock buybacks and shoring up the balance sheet.
Markel showed the strongest underwriting recovery but didn’t post much growth. The insurer’s combined ratio came in at 93%, better than 96% a year ago. Adjusted operating income at Markel Insurance jumped 31% to $369 million. But total operating revenue was flat at $3.55 billion, and Markel ended up with a $273 million operating loss after recording $727.6 million in net investment losses. CEO Tom Gayner said Markel plans to “do more of what’s working.” Markel Group
| Capital return gauge | Announced or reported buyback | Size as % of latest market value |
|---|---|---|
| Palomar Holdings Inc NASDAQ:PLMR | $200 mln buyback plan runs through May 2028 | 5.5% |
| HCI Group Inc NYSE:HCI | $80 mln buyback runs through Feb. 2027 | 3.5% |
| Markel Group Inc NYSE:MKL | $134 mln repurchased in Q1 | 0.6% |
For investors, timing matters. AM Best reported a $16.3 billion underwriting gain for the U.S. P&C industry in the first quarter, swinging from a $1 billion loss last year. Lower catastrophe losses helped, dropping to 4.2 points on the combined ratio from 14.5 points. So, first-quarter underwriting looks stronger for the sector before hurricane season ramps up.
NOAA expects a 55% chance of a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season in 2026, forecasting 8 to 14 named storms, 3 to 6 hurricanes, and 1 to 3 major hurricanes. The agency said it does not issue seasonal landfall forecasts.
